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OCZ Technology Group AŞ Message Board

  • nessaj1219 nessaj1219 Nov 21, 2012 6:46 PM Flag

    The Growing Pains of Life and an Open Invitation to Learn from them. Shorts, particularly schemp, and longs please read.

    At this point I kind of have stopped caring. I've already lost so much money it's almost comical. I see these double digit drops and where as my stomach used to drop, now it's just like "What #$%$***ng ever".

    I can agree my attitude is bad, and I should look elsewhere rather than continually taking the beating, but I lack confidence in doing so. Seeing that schemp you seem to have some grasp of the market, can you share with me how you knew or what research did you do to get a sense that OCZ should be shorted at 9 when you called it? I want to learn, and am willing to listen. I much rather take this whole thing as a harsh, first-timer, learning lesson with a steep curve, than to just sit around and get pummeled over and over and be paralyzed to move out of this stock.

    I don't know if you can do private messages, but perhaps it would be good to share to all, but I honestly want to know how someone like you does their research. What is that you are looking for, what key parameters did you take note of? Do you listen to management? I listened to management, and took what they said as truth, but clearly I am still wet behind the ears and need to reminded that people can be 'greedy' and do this thing called 'lying'. I am completely new to the market (1.25 years), and realize that my research is #$%$ndamentally flawed, or else I wouldn't be in this mess right now. How did you know management was lying, or rather the business was completely #$%$ndamentally a mess on the inside, despite what they portrayed to the outside? I've been reading this forum for a long while, and I can say for sure you have called this a "sell" since forever. Just how did you know?

    I'm coming to terms with my rookie mistakes and novice understanding of the market, and have decided to just be open with a willingness to learn, rather than stubborn and closed and living in denial about being wrong.

    From my understanding, as i've learned, people won't just give away their secrets to how they make their money. I get this. Nonetheless, it doesn't hurt to ask, cause I can't really envision having lost more than I already have, and might as well try to make an honest effort to improve and grow from this situation rather than just losing this opportunity for personal growth. Maybe someone will be kind enough to at least lead me down the correct path.

    So with that, I say...

    This is an open invitation to any and all people who read this post to share in how you do your 'homework' and how you decide to make a move. I don't want one-liners. I want honest, detailed answers, with any advice that can range from taking business/economics course at a university, to massive amounts of reading, all the way down to 'gut feelings'. I already know two things. Don't read forums for your advice (which is why I hope not to read this forums again), and particularly stay away from Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, and other user submitted garbage websites about the market. I particularly want to hear from those who have been calling this short for a long time. You know who you are. How did you do it? How did you know? Seriously, how the hell did you know!? I keep seeing 0.89 as the price people on this forum are saying is the next support level? How did you come up with this? Whoever answers can be harsh if they wish, but please share, if you are so kind to give away any knowledge. I want to learn, so that I can hope#$%$lly never make this sort of costly bone-headed, lack of information trade that I made ever again.

    PM me if you want, I will answer. Thanks everyone.


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    • threecoconuts Nov 26, 2012 11:38 PM Flag

      The paradox is that you recognize the folly of reading forums for advice and then in the same breath ask this forum for advice. None of these guys KNEW OCZ was going to tank. Investors both individual and institutional take the same info available to them on a given stock and some become bulls and some become bears. Both sides will tell you why they are right, presenting "proof" to back up their positions. In the end, the ones who were right typically didn't have a better grasp of the facts than the ones who were wrong; rather, they just happended to be on the right side of the 50/50 guess. Now, show me someone who can get it right 9 times out of 10, and that's someone I'll listen to. What's the track record of these guys who shorted OCZ? They're one for one; good for them. And anyway, why are we talking about OCZ now, at this time, as if it were a failure? Where will it be in a year? 5 years? Maybe better, maybe worse. Who knows. One thing for sure: if you sell now, you will have locked in your loss. But if you hold, maybe a few years from now the shorts of today will be posting, asking you how you knew this thing would turn out to be a winner. And unlike them, you can humbly reply that you didn't know; you simply rolled the dice and happened to get it right.

    • Hey buddy, I feel your pain. I've hung in here for 2 reasons, 1/ the products are amazing, extremely disruptive technology 2/ there is a huge and growing demand for SSD. No sugarcoating it, previous management f'd this thing up badly. This company had an execution problem, not a demand problem. There is hope. OCZ products continue to be in the top sellers on ALL major ecom sites, even with all the issues. If Vector and BF3 are as good as I think they will be, OCZ could right the ship by the 2nd quarter. If they get any traction in the enterprise, the stock will boom. I'm optimistic and patient. Be long, strong and patient and you will be rewarded.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Nessaj - I know how you feel, respect your honesty, and am in pretty much in the same boat as you it sounds like. I suspect there are many others stuck with OCZ stock as well but that's none of my business. Since I have no choice now but to hold on to what shares I have and hope for the best, I have questions about the legal issues surrounding this stock. I see Law firms circling like buzzards to drum up business and take peoples money, but haven't really seen any real, documented proof of wrong doing yet. Just speculation which runs rampant when there's no solid information of what the heck the company is, and has been up to. Yes, there's proof in the fact the stock price going underground due to bad management etc., that's for sure. My question is this - if it is proved by the SEC that there was illegal activity, is there ANY recourse for the shareholders to get some or all of their money back at all? Or, does one just say BUMMER, I invested in a SEC regulated company that turned out to be crooked and lost a whole lot of my hard earned money. I certainly agree with you about Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool etc., etc., one day pumping a stock big time and the next saying stay away, I think that is criminal as well. I looked up the Bio on Ralf Schmitt and it looks like if anybody can pull OCZ out of this mess one way or another, he can. At least there's some hope there. I went in Long and now am locked in Long, win, lose or draw. Luck

      • 1 Reply to drksct
      • As an earlier reply I had posted mentioned, I understand you completely. I am in win, lose, or draw. I really do hope that if some fraudulent activities is discovered, that there is at least SOMETHING that we can do, or get in return. From my understanding though, I believe we will be SOL, because it was our choice after all to invest. Not like someone made us. Bad choices, but hey, sometimes **** happens.

        I liken it to getting struck by lightning sometimes, lol.

    • Nessaj: learning is great, but just remember that the people you're asking for advice from are a very specific segment of the investing market (short/medium term technical traders) who are now very going to give you very confident advice about their approach.

      It seems to me that your approach is really a long-term, fundamental one. Which is very different from people like schemp. Thus, it doesn't seem clear to me that you're trying to learn from the right people.

      • 2 Replies to josh192168
      • "It seems to me that your approach is really a long-term, fundamental one. Which is very different from people like schemp. Thus, it doesn't seem clear to me that you're trying to learn from the right people."

        you need to look at short term trends as well as long term. tbh in the IT sector short term means a lot more then long term!

      • You make a strong argument, and I appreciate the insight.

        I've realized my approach is more a long-term, fundamental one as you mentioned, but I was initially going about it as short term/medium term trading. I didn't expect to hold onto OCZ for this long, but now, as drksct mentioned, im in win, lose, or draw. I wanted to trade this stock on a relatively short time frame, but I never did nor had the capacity or knowledge to properly do that.

        I'll take the advice I receive with a grain of salt. I just want to see what strategies are employed by people in the market. For the future, I have a firmer understanding of the type of investor I want to be, and this stock has hammered that into me. As much 'fun' as it would be to be short/medium term trader, or swing or day trade, I just don't have the time for that. I have a stable job that I enjoy (for the most part), and I don't see myself getting any personal satisfaction out of trading day to day and studying stocks relentlessly day in and day out. Some people want to do that, and that's great, but right now, that's not me. Maybe one day...but not now.

        Thanks for the post, it's good to be reminded of such things.

    • Post your email if you wish and I will give you my insight. I was once in your shoes. I still make mistakes to this day but ive learned to limit them and how to spot an obvious turd like ocz.

      • 2 Replies to schemp06
      • I am going to use the military phonetic alphabet to write out my email. No matter how many attempts I have tried, Yahoo is blocking it, so although this is a bit excessive it's worth a shot.

        November Echo Sierra Sierra Alpha Juliett 1 2 1 9 (at) Yankee Alpha Hotel Oscar Oscar (dot) Charlie Oscar Mike.

        Thanks to anyone who wants to send me an email, and hopefully provide some insight. If I end up getting spam be it! Fortunately this email is not my primary =P

      • Yahoo keeps blocking any attempt at a reply for some reason. Perhaps it has to do with having email contact info in the message. I will try to reply to this message, with my email done somewhat cryptically.

    • look at quarterly reports, the balance sheet here was a huge red flag. inventory always going up with record amounts of revenue but no growing margin? this is a sign you will see a writedown coming down the pike.

      then you have ryan stating they shipping 27 million, enterprise wins, yet he don't guide higher? i am not sure you listened to the conference calls they tell you a lot. none of the analysts bought his bullshi...

      i wasn't here for the $9 prices, but i did listen to past calls and just nothing they said ever seemed to pan out or it was always one quarter down the road. i am sure this is what cued schemp off?

      i think the biggest thing you want to learn is when to pull the plug. be it at 30% 20% 10% set a price you will accept a loss or gain at and sell at it.

      hope didn't work out with obama, and it will never work with stocks.