Hi Joe, I'm with you on this, and in fact rebalanced my position recently (added significantly.) I have no question that there is significant value in this company. The question/risk, which is difficult to quantify, is "How much will existing shareholders be diluted by the capital raise?" Moreover, the structure of the capital raise could be significant.
I still think OCZ can print somewhere in the neighborhood of $500 mil in revs for 2013 and be profitable in F4Q. Most important, I still think the nascent enterprise business is an unappreciated driver for sales and profits. If BF3 and the Vector drives are successful, F2014 could show significant improvement...say $750 mil. With a 33% GM, F2014 eps could be 90 cents. So even with a $50 mil capital raise at $1.10 per share (an additional 45 mil shares), a $5 target is only 5.5X F2014 eps and 0.7X EV/F2014 revs for a company growing 50%...not a bad risk/reward profile in my opinion.
Yeah, it has been a dog because of poor management but the opportunity is still too big to ignore. I think what people are forgetting is how valuable VXL is and how that can really influence OCZ's GM profile.
So far since the change to Ralph OCZ has been doing exactly what most analysts (focus on high GM biz) and customers have been asking them to do (focus on reliability).
I've been following OCZ closely for 2 years and this is by far the best product launch I've seen. It's a pretty good indicator of the operational changes that are happening at the company.