Hello everyone. I've been watching OCZ since Oct. and currently kicking myself for not initiating a position before today's big gain. It's a rationale assumption that the revised quarterly statements will be released very soon and someone already knows about it and/or a possible buyout is in the works. I'm leaning towards the results being out soon. I'd like to start a discussion based on these questions:
What numbers in the revised quarterly statements are we looking for? In these categories, what ranges would justify an upside/downside from this point?
Thanks in advance. Off to a doctor's appointment. Hopefully we can get a legitimate discussion going based on what to look for assuming the statement(s) are out soon. I look forward to your insights.
Coming from a long term bagholder....
The numbers from previous quarters are meaningless, the stock is already priced for bankruptcy which is where we were going under Ryan Peterson's leadership.
What we are looking for is cash position, and future guidance. As long as R.S. gives guidance of being cash flow positive before we run out of money this stock is flying straight up to $4-$5 overnight. If guidance looks gloomy, here comes $1 but i highly doubt he gives gloomy enough guidance to drop this past the $1.80 resistance ($2 range).
We need a sign that the cash position has not dwindled too low. The company must have adequate cash on hand since Wells Fargo has us on a short lease. We need to hear how R.S. plans to infuse capital without too much share dilution. At these price levels it is hard but not impossible. R.S says that infusing capital is easy and we will need to infuse capital before the company can be cash flow positive but he is simply trying to get the best terms. So, far, we have been able to successfully operate and pay off Wells Fargo by liquidating our inventory. The company has no real debt to speak of yet. The 7 million we owe to Wells Fargo should be much less than our cash on hand.
R. S. said that we need 110 mil to be cash flow positive. That is not a hard number to hit, in fact we have already hit that number. This is a different business model however, where we focus on high margin and lower numbers. We are looking for future guidance above 110 mil revenue within the next year. Expect our revenues to have significantly decreased.
Well, there are a few things to consider. The drop in price wasn't so much because of poor financials, that we knew around $4-5 the drop was because of the back to back delays in reporting. The rise today is because of anticipation of the release and a possible buy out. Followed by large short covering. The resistance and support levels of this stock also state that above 2.27 we will see close to 3-3.25.. However any reporting of the company will push this to 3-5 range I believe. I know that's a large gap but with so many unknowns it's tough to say. We havn't had any financial information in over 2 quarters, that would scare any "safe" investor. However I'd be hard pressed to believe we are going to dip below 2.27 even with bad financials.
I think we will see $3-3.50 on quarterly release with meh/bad quarterly. 4ish on "what?" or huh? quarterly results, and easily $5 on positive results. I feel however there is a tactical reason for them delaying these last two, and feel the most recent to be much more positive than the past showing strong signs of growth.
sell out is a #$%$ shoot, however I don't think we'll see one till after the finances have been released as any bid before would be unfair to share holders whom do not know the true value of the stock. buy out will probably be in the 6-9 range if it happens at all. But with that said this company is a STRONG candidate for a buy out at these bargain prices.
I say if it retracts around 2.27-2.35 you buy and hold till at the very least after reports are submitted to the SEC.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Previous quarters is not as bad as some assume because if it was RP ceo would have sold shares while he could if something big was cooking. A #$%$ would take all he can get he has over 2 million shares to sell if he wanted. Plus no costumier was or is more then 10% of their revenue ever. Going forward is what matters every ssd company has double digit growth and I watch OCZ enterprise double to 20% then slow down some even intel has only 6% growth in enterprise. Thats why I believe we are right now at revenue of 140m. Making a profit