If you knew that the Top hat and rubber shot were not going to work, and the only way to stop this leak was the relief well that won't be finished for 2-3 more months, would you still be long this stock?
It's very difficult to have much confidence in BP's efforts given all the lies they've told so far and their particularly bad engineering (why the first dome didn't work, why the BOP failed, etc.). Now that we have new estimates that the rate of flow is about 14 TIMES WORSE than the Coast Guard reported and 70 TIMES WORSE than what BP was trying to sell us early on, I don't think the market is even close to pricing in this disaster. The longs are holding on, crossing their fingers, still in denial. By the time that relief well is done, if it's ever done (not tried at this depth before), there will have spilled already 30 Exxon Valdez equivalents into the Gulf.