There are 300 000 people in the United States that make there living off the Gulf of Mexico. They make on average $45 000 per yer. They will be out of work for one decade. Thats $45 000 x 10 x 300 000 = $135 000 000 000. The cost of the clean up will only be $17 - $25 billion. If you add the collateral damage, beaches , hotels, you get an additional $30 - $60 billion. This adds up to $190 000 000 000. BP assets are $225 Billion. BP will have to file for chapter 11 in 2012.
You MUST take out DEBT, GOODWILL, and INTANGIBLES from total assets. That leaves roughly $50B NET ASSETS, not $225B. Data from yahoo, slightly old (2008), but a good ballpark estimate. If the spill stops TODAY, the stock price could still be a total wipe-out: $00.00.
These are not facts, they are your forecasts for future events. There are an infinite number of other scenarios that might play out. My forecast is that your numbers are wildly on the high side.
You also ignore the time value of money. Even if someone is out of work ten years, no court would award him ten years of salary today, they would discount it to reflect time value of money.
You also ignore that BP generates some $30-$40 billion a year in cash from operations.
All in all, not a convincing analysis.
No, these are not all facts at all. They include quite a few unsubstantiated assertions. For example, you say that these people (and all 300,000 of them) will be out of work for 10 years. That may or may not be a reasonable guess (although I find it doubtful) but in any case it is not a "fact." And where do you get your "fact" about the cost of the clean-up -- other sources have put it much lower.
It is possible BP will be bankrupt, but nothing in your post is convincing.
Lol.....yeah, 10% of America makes their living exclusively fishing clams and crawfish from the Gulf.
10 percent of America is NOT 300,000 people.
Actually a lot more people make their living from the Gulf.They are not all fisherman either.
I live in a resort town on the Gulf and all 5000 residents make a living off the Gulf in one way or another. If the tourists don't come to the beach, and we can't fish for food,The location is useless. The waitress at the Waffle House loses her job because of no business, so BP pays her also. It's not just the fisherman that will be reimbursed, the entire population will. I believe the 300,000 number is far too low. BP will work for us drilling for oil to make "OUR" payroll.
Not very good at math.
There are 300 million Americans. His claim was 300 thousand are employed in the Gulf.
That is 0.1% of Americans. NOT 10%.
Please tell us you are not making your own investment decisions with that level of math ignorance.