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BP p.l.c. Message Board

  • sushibn sushibn Jan 7, 2013 1:36 PM Flag

    oil goes to $65 in 2013: Raymond James


    Mr. Coleman: The RJ house call for commodities on both oil and gas are, one, we think that supply in the U.S. on the oil side has been growing pretty robustly, and we could add an incremental 3 million barrels over the next five years. Secondly, on the demand side, what we see is - or what we know is - that the U.S. economy is not growing rapidly. There's risk to potentially going into recession if we fall off the fiscal cliff. And we know Europe is having their own macroeconomic issues, and there are big concerns about China slowing down. So we think that higher supply in the U.S. and weaker demand globally could come together and manifest itself in the most obvious sign of exploding oil inventories in the next six months, and those higher inventories then will push oil prices down. So using our bottom-up, play-by-play oil model, we think to get going with the slowdown you need to see pricing average $65 for 2013.

    On the gas side, we know last winter was extremely warm, causing prices to collapse. It would have been worse had we not seen up to 10 Bcf/D of coal to gas switching on the power side.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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