I have tried with research and 'biased' honesty.....I say biased because I own a lot of BP.....to read every event as positively as possible. Ok, chalk it up to: educated wishful thinking. I have learned from the opposite point of view.......but now, I admit, I am beginning to get very concerned over all the payouts mounting up. Where does BP go from here? What are your thoughts out there? A billion here and a billion there.......and this is starting to get scary. Can all the good posters talk me through this. (We are talking about a potential situation that could bring a company down..........are we on a sinking ship?)
In fairness, she posted the name of the publication and there was an article. I didn't read it as bullish or bearish, but just stating the rather obvious - if the Judge finds gross negligence theres trouble, if he doesn't, BP should be fine.
What investing in BP comes down to is what you think the Judge is going to do. I wouldn't want to be long on a Judge whos name sounds like a girls playdoll!!!
Well, first, a post like yours is an open invitation to haters, doomsayers and short players to get in their "I told you so's". Desperate people post here hoping to change the minds of those who read, but this is fantasy. Seldom do you find anyone's real opinion about things, more often you get a rehashing of rarely-accurate reporting or irrational "what I want" scenarios. Of course you also get the "stating the obvious" crowd boldly predicting that either the sun will come up tomorrow OR the end of the universe will catch us unprepared. Mark their words...indeed.
You seem to have an interest in analysis, and you have kept your eye on the financials. BP has made both good and bad moves since the spill, but as you implied in another post, they have at least been making moves that appear strategic. The resolution of spill litigations and fine assessment will not be fully complete for another few years, but the bulk of it will at least be ruled on this year. Some days it seems like BP will emerge with a fair shake; more often it seems that there's just too much greed in play (numerous parties) and the "blood in the water" just keeps drawing more sharks.
Here's the bottom line: the courts will rule, and BP will appeal if those rulings are unjustified. The rulings will be "adjusted" in the long run, lessening BP's overall liability. IMHO, the total outlay for the spill will be less than $50B. BP predicted early on that the total would be around $42B. Tax write-offs have/will allay some of the loss. The share buy-back is taking advantage of the artificially depressed share price in BP's favor. BP's out of pocket will end up in the $30-40B range. This amount is pretty much what has already been set aside. Astute investors realize that the current stock price reflects "negative emotional mass" and that financial performance and investor return actually justify a significantly higher price. It is not a question of "if" but of "when". Out of room.