I think PBY is going to put up for sale. price tag: a cool $400 million plus the assumption of debt ( about $340 million) so a competitor can pick 515 stores, $2 billion in dales and a $1 billion worth of real esate value for about $740 million. That gives the acquiring company an immeadiate $260 million gain right out of the gate.
A lot of people have talked about a buyout for some time even I talked about it about 2 years ago when Barington and Pirate started buying. I noticed the unusual days where volume would go over 2,000,000 shares. Today I don't think a buy out, a hostile take over, a merger or a BK will happen. Simple, there are just to many BIG Players like Barington in PBY. The little guy like me and you don't mean much. There might be one or maybe a few that have had to unwind their position in PBY. If you look there are about 20 big institutions that own 500,000 shares or more for over 70% stake in the company. In my opinion I don't think it will be at $8 as most have a much higher cost basis. Some like Barrington bought in the 12's. Unless those 20 plus companies bailed over the last 4 months I don't think it is possible for any kind of a take over, buyout or BK. If you look there just hasn't been enough volume for that to have happened. If one were to be able to look back at earlier info on Yahoo they would have noticed that Advisory had a bigger stake in the company than Barington. As of June this year Barington is the largest share holder in the company. What happened I'm not sure. Did Barington buy more shares or did Advisory sell some shares? Back in September I believe someone lighten their load of shares. Volume shows 9 days of over a million shares trading hands. 8 of those days were all together except for a 967,000 share day. To me that says there was one seller. Dumb Martha thinks Exxon will buy but when you think about it how are you going to get everyone to come together. Yeah Martha I know who is dumb? Who is right, who is wrong. Its just a matter of timing Martha.
If Mr. JAMES MITAROTONDA is listening I'm for using the Dividend to buy back shares!
Hows it goin???
We need some advice right about now. Tell us, Tell us Martha what we should do?
I stated here recently that my inside informant had confirmed that Exxon lowered its buyout price to six bucks a share. And that was many DJIA points ago.
My feel is that Exxon will lower its target to 4 bucks. That would be a 30% or so premium to its market price today. Why would Exxon or anybody else pay anymore?
Another option, and I know Exxon executives well as I date more than several of them and we discuss business models all the time, is that Exxon let this turkey go into BK, and then make a cash offer at maybe a dollar a share. Bet a bankruptcy judge would go for a cash (and cash is king) resolution of a defunct company's assets. That way, Exxon would not have to deal with executive golden parachutes or bonuses at all. Those guys would get nothing because Exxon's buyout price will at best cover the liabilities to suppliers and bondholders. The shareholders will get totally shafted.
Of course, Patrick, if you have a better buyout group that has the bucks and ability... trot em out and show em off.
I sleep with moneyed minds and know what I am talking about.