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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 20, 2009 9:06 PM Flag

    Thoughts For the Day

    Just saw where Ned Davis also upgraded PBY to buy late on Friday, 4-17-09. Nothing goes up or down forever. Stock looks like it's forming a new trading range from high 6's to mid 7's. It could also bust out quickly. Today, the market was down almost 300 points most of the day. Almost all stocks got clobbered. After noon, Barron's upgraded AZO and ORLY from sell to hold. Then,wegot the Argus upgrade. Within 5-6 minutes PBY went from $6.90's to $7.30's before the sells kicked in. I saw blocks of 25,000 +/- being sold like crazy knocking the price down again. It took the first 6 hours to trade 567,000 shares +/- and then almost 500,000 traded in the last 30 minutes all on the upside. What we are seeing now are the weak hands again selling that have doubled their money in past 4-6 weeks. The distributions might now be hitting as well. We don't know when thy are being sold or even if being sold, even though highly likely. The blocks today would indicate that. We may also be seeing shorts with the big runup. Technicals would support that. There are also the investors that buy the top percentage gainers to ride the wild ride and they usually put in a stop loss at 10%. The main trading range today before 2:30 P.M. Central Time was from the $6.90's to low $7.00's which would indicate the MM was taking out the stop losses. The last 30 minutes indicates to me that we are just taking a breather and consolidating. AH trades were also all on the upside to the tune of almost 30,000 shares. I just find it very interesting that Argus has such a following. I wouldn't have believed it today if I hadn't seen it for myself. The SVP also shifted almost $80K from other investments to PBY today as well. DaninFW

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    • How about your thoughts about making PBY profitable again? Why does Autozone make a good profit in the same business that PBY is loosing in? Could it be that PBY needs to close their loosing stores and open new ones in developing areas? And should they stop paying dividends and pay off their debt?

      • 1 Reply to wilkes71
      • I have posted my thoughts and suggestions many times about this months ago and years ago. You can go back and read some of my old postings but in a nutshell, way too heavy on payroll due to business model. I spent over a decade running 35 autoparts stores so I have some familiarity with the subject. I spent other decades running 30-50 at a time other businesses and chains as well from grocery stores to vocational schools to cable television companies. The PBY model requires personnel to staff their retail parts counter, their service counter and checkout area. The three need to be combined to two in the worst case scenario and one in the best case scenario. And yes, I have run combined service and retail stores. Chief Auto had them in the 80's and 90's and I was responsible for their operations. I was the only one that ever made them profitable. DaninFW

18.50+0.01(+0.05%)Feb 3 4:00 PMEST