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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

  • bayshorerob bayshorerob Apr 12, 2010 3:47 PM Flag

    Buy Recommendations

    Kind of scarey now that analysts are on board....Dan, I agree that they so often misread the data before them. They merely see and hang their hats on what they want to. Again, revenues are the salient factor here and remain quite troublesome.

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    • The 3% same store sales increase is a big positive. However, the analysts are already projecting a 3.5% same store sales increase....setting PBY up to deliver short again. They also have earnings projection at 21 cents this quarter versus 15 LY. Even if PBY comes in at say 2.5% same store increase and earn 18 cents they will come in short. I also don't see a 6% swing in sales after not spending $6.1 million in advertising. It can only be pent up demand from customers snowed in for months which is again a one time phenomenon. If PBY is up 3%, then you can bet ORLY and AAP are up 6-8% and AZO 4-6%. I would definitely be looking at them. PBY could break through $12 but will get hammered when they fall short. Money can be made here but timing is crucial. DaninFW