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Allergan plc Message Board

  • DewDiligence DewDiligence Sep 3, 1999 2:40 PM Flag

    This stock looks like trouble.


    Let's analyze their business segments one by

    1) Ophthalmologic pharm (40% of sales): Alphagan,
    the biggest product, comes off protection 09/01.
    Other products in this segment are already subject to
    generic competition.

    2) Surgical/IOL's (15%): They
    compete with STAA and others. Medicare reimbursement
    remains a ceiling on profitability.

    Contact-lens care (28%): This is a declining, commodity
    business and agn has nothing new to offer of any
    consequence. (LT decline is virtually assured due to the
    success of LVC and other vision-correction devices such
    as ICR's.)

    4) Skin-care business (6%): This
    segment is too small to matter. (I mention in passing
    that I used Naftin a few years ago for a toenail
    fungus and I found it to be totally useless.)

    Botox (10%): Competition is coming in US, and I have
    heard rumors that agn's botox patents could be
    challenged. This could still be a growth area, however, due
    to cosmetic applications.

    In summary, the
    stock looks significantly overpriced at 100-110. The
    p/e is high --even excluding 1998's "non-recurring"

    This topic is deleted.
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    • cant get excited about anything that company
      has....probably stuff everyone else got rid any event,
      agn will probably report some good numbers tommorrow
      based upon the move the last couple days.

    • With the introduction of D.E.T. stips in the US will this be a major competitor in the D.E.T. testing, or will this product just be a niche item. I do not think the market is that large.

    • first of all this stock is still rich at 104...i
      wouldnt be too concerned...secondly, earnings are
      expected shortly and most stocks have expectations built
      into the price a couple weeks pre release...therefore
      we can expect some pullback,and at these prices this
      pullback is no big deal....i would be surprised if this is
      a indicator of bad news....these guys have their
      act if they would make a couple good

    • I couldn't find anything of interest or
      significance on today's wires.

      Hopefully, its some
      traders/short-term investors taking a little air out of what I
      believe is an AGN bubble. If that is the case, I believe
      it will help in the longer term.

      Best, the

    • Down 6% when the market is only off slightly! Anyone know what's up?

    • <EOM>

    • OTC is basically water and its sales covers
      overhead. The future is in RX, and not OTC. Surprized they
      have not moved into lasers, but I believe the PLAN is
      BioTech. I hope the product pipeline is there to build the
      sales. For some reason I still think M&A is in the
      future by 2001. Can AGN survive as a lone ranger given
      the economy of scale. BOL is still a sleeping giant
      and Alcon is not going to give up market share. Can
      AGN afford to be #3 and be a niche marketeer.

    • You nailed it, my friend. With all companies
      fighting for investor's dollars, who in the hell cares
      about contact lens solutions? OLD STUFF! These are, at
      best, cash cow products that should be funding real
      growth opportunities.

      As an aside, I think
      "lowroller" was only posting some information. My hope is AGN
      doesn't spend too much money on this. I doubt they will.
      With their training and inherited tradition of
      marketing niche products, I'm sure they will continue to
      put their bucks into Botox, Alphagan and
      Ocuflox.....and, any other opportunities. Right now they are
      riding a Clinton taking credit for the
      economy. Time will tell how good they really

      Best, the Deuce

    • cl solutions is a non exciting sector today and
      tommorrow...wouldnt want anyone to get too concerned...secondly,i
      personally would not care much about anything that happened
      at k mart,but they had better not lose at wal mart.

    • Good to have you back. The CRDF program is for
      key suppliers. KM wants to reduce the number of
      vendors, but wants their key suppliers to provide a broad
      breath of products. KM is inviting these supplier to
      join them, by offering more SKU's. The broader the
      product line, the better chance in being a KM
      It will be up to Alcon or BOL to fill the shelves if
      AGN decides to pass on this account. You do not need
      8 different contact eye solutions. 1 Major and 1
      Private Label. Turn is the key.
      Supply Chain
      Management is here.

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