Let's analyze their business segments one by
1) Ophthalmologic pharm (40% of sales): Alphagan,
the biggest product, comes off protection 09/01.
Other products in this segment are already subject to
2) Surgical/IOL's (15%): They
compete with STAA and others. Medicare reimbursement
remains a ceiling on profitability.
Contact-lens care (28%): This is a declining, commodity
business and agn has nothing new to offer of any
consequence. (LT decline is virtually assured due to the
success of LVC and other vision-correction devices such
4) Skin-care business (6%): This
segment is too small to matter. (I mention in passing
that I used Naftin a few years ago for a toenail
fungus and I found it to be totally useless.)
Botox (10%): Competition is coming in US, and I have
heard rumors that agn's botox patents could be
challenged. This could still be a growth area, however, due
to cosmetic applications.
In summary, the
stock looks significantly overpriced at 100-110. The
p/e is high --even excluding 1998's "non-recurring"
cant get excited about anything that company
has....probably stuff everyone else got rid of...in any event,
agn will probably report some good numbers tommorrow
based upon the move the last couple days.
first of all this stock is still rich at 104...i
wouldnt be too concerned...secondly, earnings are
expected shortly and most stocks have expectations built
into the price a couple weeks pre release...therefore
we can expect some pullback,and at these prices this
pullback is no big deal....i would be surprised if this is
a indicator of bad news....these guys have their
act together....now if they would make a couple good
I couldn't find anything of interest or
significance on today's wires.
Hopefully, its some
traders/short-term investors taking a little air out of what I
believe is an AGN bubble. If that is the case, I believe
it will help in the longer term.
OTC is basically water and its sales covers
overhead. The future is in RX, and not OTC. Surprized they
have not moved into lasers, but I believe the PLAN is
BioTech. I hope the product pipeline is there to build the
sales. For some reason I still think M&A is in the
future by 2001. Can AGN survive as a lone ranger given
the economy of scale. BOL is still a sleeping giant
and Alcon is not going to give up market share. Can
AGN afford to be #3 and be a niche marketeer.
You nailed it, my friend. With all companies
fighting for investor's dollars, who in the hell cares
about contact lens solutions? OLD STUFF! These are, at
best, cash cow products that should be funding real
As an aside, I think
"lowroller" was only posting some information. My hope is AGN
doesn't spend too much money on this. I doubt they will.
With their training and inherited tradition of
marketing niche products, I'm sure they will continue to
put their bucks into Botox, Alphagan and
Ocuflox.....and, any other opportunities. Right now they are
riding a crest....like Clinton taking credit for the
economy. Time will tell how good they really
Best, the Deuce
cl solutions is a non exciting sector today and
tommorrow...wouldnt want anyone to get too concerned...secondly,i
personally would not care much about anything that happened
at k mart,but they had better not lose at wal mart.
Good to have you back. The CRDF program is for
key suppliers. KM wants to reduce the number of
vendors, but wants their key suppliers to provide a broad
breath of products. KM is inviting these supplier to
join them, by offering more SKU's. The broader the
product line, the better chance in being a KM
It will be up to Alcon or BOL to fill the shelves if
AGN decides to pass on this account. You do not need
8 different contact eye solutions. 1 Major and 1
Private Label. Turn is the key.
Management is here.