You have done your due diligence and this appears to be a buying opportunity based on short term movement in rates and a fear inspired correction. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT! The fundamentals are changing for the worse and the economic fundamentals(real disposable income, demographics, mortgage rates (loosening lending standards will not filter down to 1st time homebuyers), jobs for 20 year olds, and etc.) are getting worse. The price action of these stocks, XHB, and ITB are telling you the housing boom is over.
If the FED actually tapers, this sector will be completely destroyed, definitely a retest of the 2012 lows. The only reprieve and shot at retesting the old highs is if the FED completely backtracks on QE withdrawal. THIS IS THE MAKE OR BREAK ISSUE! Remember, stocks and bonds are leading indicators and the future is always priced in ahead of the interest rate moves.