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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • archie_haddock archie_haddock Sep 28, 2012 1:41 PM Flag

    There's something about AMPE

    Something troubles me about AMPE.

    Please bear with me. It is a bona-fide observation.

    It's got nothing to do with the Company per se, as I do believe that if AMPE is as good as the concept of re-purposing already approved and widely used drugs suggests it could be, then it really could be, as R Cavalli says, one of the best opportunities he has seen in many years.

    The Australian C9 Ampion news feature is nothing short of remarkable, and if all the news was as powerful as that piece, then I would not be writing here today.

    As I said, it's not Ampio which concerns me, rather it's the coverage it gets. Not the usual drivel that you get from dumpers/bashers/shorts (nothing new in that - it happens to most if not all biotechs), but much more worrying in my opinion is the coverage it gets from the likes of Cavalli and other pro-AMPE 'writers'. Today it is the turn of Idave (1st article - hobbyist investor), last time I think it was IndieTrader (1 article - actor, director and 'occasional investor'!).

    People, not one of these guys has more than a couple of articles to their name! Cavalli has openly pitched, via the SA platform, for the PR job at AMPE! With those credentials and with these opinions finding a platform on SA, how can anyone take their opinions as any form of a basis for investment. Every single pro-AMPE hack is an amateur!

    I genuinely believe that these guys are like loose cannons, and I assume that if you are investing, you would be wise to amateur hacks and their motives and agendas. I also think that even though they may mean well, they have done more damage to AMPE than any of the short/basher types.

    If AMPE are to emerge strong and robust, and with some kind of credibility, they need a different calibre of analyst/expert to provide the coverage, someone with even a sliver of authority on the sector, someone who can defend their position, and Ampio should point Cavalli towards the door and told to can his ramblings.

    I am long AMPE and have been since March - at very close to today's levels - but this trend of amateur hyping is and has been unsettling, and in my opinion has done more harm than good.

    I am angry at them as you might be able to detect from my tone...

    Oh, and as for that TraderInvestorAlert site, which is often referred to in the SA comments, please cast an eye over the whois readout below.

    Registered through: GoDaddy, LLC
    Created on: 08-Jul-12
    Expires on: 08-Jul-13
    Last Updated on: 09-Jul-12

    TOPANGA, California 90290
    United States

    Administrative Contact:
    TOPANGA, California 90290
    United States
    (310) 455-7250

    Technical Contact:
    TOPANGA, California 90290
    United States
    (310) 455-7250

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    • Archie...

      I liked your thoughtful post. Permit me to give you my perspective on the situation.

      Taking last things first, Rich Cavalli has never tried to hide behind TRADERINVESTORALERT. There is a big picture of him right next to the posts if you go to the "Market Pulse" section on Yahoo. I think we all know it is him and he certainly made no effort otherwise.

      With respect to the nature of the those writing positive articles versus those writing negative articles, I have the following perspective.

      Ampio is undertaking its business much differently than other drug discovery/development companies. Ampio has ALWAYS operated differently - and that includes financially and funding-wise. From its inception as DMI in 1991, the company, unlike almost every other company of its nature has NEVER taken "institutional" money. It NEVER raised money from venture capital, or private equity. From its inception it raised funds as needed from individuals. Scores of them.

      The result is that it has never (unit very recently) had any "institutional" (read "professional investor") following. Instead there has only been a truly rabid group of individuals who have taken the time to get to know the company and its products, and bought in. This is very unusual. I don't know of ANY drug discovery/development company that has gotten anywhere near where Ampio is without taking "institutional investor" money.

      There are some real upsides, as well as downsides to this approach. The upside is that the individual investors (and management) can do very, very well without the huge amounts of dilution, and sometimes the "highway robbery" typical of an early stage venture capital investment. Typically the VCs will take about 85% leaving the other shareholders and management to split the remaining 15%. Ampio always sought to treat its early investors (from the DMI days) very well.

      The downside we are seeing now. That downside is the fact that as a public company, especially one that went public through a reverse merger into a public shell, there were no institutional investors with a vested interest in supporting the stock. There was no "initial public offering" per se - complete with investment bankers taking an interest and making a market in the stock. There was no analyst coverage. And no venture investors with investment banking buddies on their side.

      Ampio was just sitting out there with a ton of potential and stock that had risen to to over $9 on just the hearsay of people who knew the company. (Really quite remarkable) Ampio was the ideal stock for a professional "short seller." There was no legitimate independent analyst coverage to counter anything the shorters wanted to say. The result has been professional shorters battling it out with the dedicated individuals who have closely examined the company and fell in love with the story.

      You are correct. You can't trust any of them, and they all have their own interest at heart - on whatever side of the equation they may fall.

      All of this however, is starting to change. Based on the last coupe of fundings, institutions have started to get involved. And lately (a day or two ago) Aegis Capital produced a 48 page research report on the stock - with a BUY rating and an $11 price target. True, Aegis was one of the firms handling the last funding, but the research side of the house is supposed to be objective (supposed to be).

      I anticipate additional analyst coverage and research coming out in the near future. I think you will also see more institutional interest as the stock gets over $5.

      In the meanwhile, take it all with a grain of salt and do your own research. Talk to Ampio - they are good people and willing to talk to you. Some have said they lie and you can't trust their published press releases and other information, or will try to find some thing or another to attack what they have said. Make your own determination on whether they are willing to risk jail time to do so.

      As for Rich Cavalli, I don't blame him. Once you get into it, you will not only want to buy the stock but you would also want to do their PR. I am long... VERY, VERY long... but it is based on what I have found out and learned about the company, and nothing else.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to th3k33p3r24
      • I am deeply grateful for your taking the time to state your insight into Ampio. In my opinion, you have stated the truth very calmly and objectively. I believe you are right on target and that Ampio is an incredible opportunity for those who take the time to think for themselves and do their own research. In the not too distant future, Ampio shareholders will be rewarded beyond even the dreams of todays most bullish advocates.

        All my very best to buyers, sellers, short sellers, bashers and pumpers. I hope you all do well and prosper with happiness. There will be plenty of opportunity for all players in this arena.


        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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