The company finally broke its ' silence and the news is fantastic! The cost and time of the phase III trials are being reduced dramatically. And the FDA will now very likely accept the new NDA since it is based on their own recommendation. And yet shares continue to fall. If this was any other company, this press release and many others would have sent shares soaring on heavy volume. But it did not! Why?
This is why:
Their press releases are bland, uninteresting, and way too literal with no explanation leaving room for misunderstanding. For example, todays press release makes the same huge mistake made in prior releases. It says that Ampion was found to be effective on day 84. Unfortunately, many readers take this to mean that it did not work until day 84. That point has been made by critics of Ampion several times since phase II trial results were released. What the company meant to say was that Ampion was STILL effective on day 84. Ampion was actually effective within hours of the injection . . . not 84 days later as implied by this unintentional but careless statement that required elaboration. Ampion is their lead drug and has the potential to become a mega blockbuster but nobody would ever know it by the company's press releases.
Poorly written press releases are one reason. They have been bland and so literal that they still leave too much to the readers imagination and interpretation.
Other obvious reasons are the company has ALMOST NO Wall Street following, small hedge funds with short interests continue to control the price of the stock which is very easy to do on a stock that trades next to nothing on a regular basis.
Remember December 2011, when The Banker, blasted Ampio's management with very troublesome accusations and sent shares falling for 6 month's straight from $8 to $2.64. The company did NOTHING to defend themselves and shares would have continued to even lower prices than $2.64 if Cavalli did not step in and begin spreading Ampio’s story to the investment community. Cavalli’s efforts to simply tell the truth about Ampio sparked enough investor interest to reverse the decline and even send shares soaring to $6.25 per share with 10 million shares being traded in only two sessions. A major result of this campaign was that it allowed the company to raise $17 million WITHOUT SEVERLY diluting shareholders. And this was accomplished by only telling the truth about Ampio’s exciting story. The only error was that milestones were about 6 months premature which is nothing in the overall scheme of things.
Then Feuerstein showed up and unleashed his campaign to crush the stock again and down she went again. Then it was a battle between the bulls and bears and suddenly Cavalli disappeared in December and now we are headed down again . . . even with good news.
Fading trading volume and price confirm that the young man, Rick Giles, who heads their IR is extremely inexperienced for a company of this nature and has failed miserably to increase investor awareness about Ampio’s story.
Unless this company takes a more aggressive position on getting its’ story out, shareholders are doomed to todays’ environment. If this were any other company, shares would be trading at $20 looking at $50 instead of $3 looking at $5 or 6.
All we can do is hope management eventually figures out how to maximize shareholder value by simply telling the real story to the millions of investors who would love to know it.
Interesting referring to Cavalli in the third person in your post......
Couple of other errors you made (weird for some one who claims to know the company so well).
" It says that Ampion was found to be effective on day 84. Unfortunately, many readers take this to mean that it did not work until day 84. That point has been made by critics of Ampion several times since phase II trial results were released. What the company meant to say was that Ampion was STILL effective on day 84. " You should look at the actual data AMPE provided (it's on slide 11 of their December investor presentation). See those overlaping error bars, that means Amprion did only show efficacy at day 84, which is in itself i think a suspect result.
Also when you write "that the young man, Rick Giles". You do know, at least according to data from Reuters, that Rick Giles is 63? I don't think 63 fits too many definitions of "young man".
" Cavalli’s efforts to simply tell the truth about Ampio sparked enough investor interest to reverse the decline and even send shares soaring to $6.25 per share with 10 million shares being traded in only two sessions." I have to admit, that was impressive. Well done!
Great post overall, but my impression is that the "news" we finally get on Optina seems to indicate to me anyway that we have at least 12 more weeks of the trial with probably no and I mean blank news from the trial, and combined with blank news on Zertane the environment is blank and the overall news is good in my opinion.
Ummmm, how is "the news is fantastic"?
It looks to me that AMPE has to do a dose finding study of Ampion before they can do a pivotal study. Isn't this at odds with what they were saying in December?
Didn't the CEO write, in a May 11, 2012 press release "Michael Macaluso, Ampio's CEO, noted, "The Company agreed with all the guidance for Ampion™ provided by CBER and believes the regulatory path described is both reasonable and manageable by the Company. The results of these trials (two phase III, well conducted, placebo controlled trials, run concurrently) will form the basis for a BLA submission. The scope and design of these studies will be available in our IND submission."?
If the company got guidance on the phase 3 studies back in May, why the addition of this dose finding study now?
Today's news should be construed as good, since, as you mentioned, it appears that the FDA will now be set to finally approve the Phase 3 trial after a few tweaks. But I guess some could look at it negatively as there was a delay. Once they get a go ahead on the Ampion IND, then we wait for an approval of the Zertane questionnaire and the go ahead with that trial, with some type of announced licensing deal with a Big Pharma partner.
If one of the 3 - Ampion, Optina, Zertane gets approved this year the stock is a double or triple. If more than one of the drugs gets approved, one can only guess how high AMPE goes over the course of a year or two.