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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tradersoracle tradersoracle Mar 11, 2013 12:03 PM Flag

    Unbelievable absence of buyers

    The company has frequently mentioned that there will be a licensing deal with a major pharma partner that will happen as soon as the POPE is approved.

    This morning Ampio announced that that the POPE was approved by the FDA.

    This would have sent any stock flying through the roof with MASSIVE buying, but instead Ampio is up only fractionally and with paltry volume of less than 300,000 shares.

    WOW . . . WOW . . . WOW!!!

    This is by far the worst performance I have EVER seen in any stock.

    We know the stock will fly on a licensing deal announcement, but now with the path clear for the announcement, nothing (or very little) happens.

    This is precisely why Ampio needs a major banker and analyst coverage by somebody who is credible on Wall Street. Their bankers have ALMOST ZERO following!

    One could safely argue that their stock will go up on the big news of a deal when it is announced but the truth is that it would be better for the stock to go from $10 to $20 than from $4 to $10.

    If Ampio had the coverage it deserved, it would be a $20 stock today . . . before the big news starts hitting the wires.

    At any rate, investors can still jump on board and go for a quick double before the stream of pivotal trial announcements starts. Eventually bigger bankers and analysts will come on board but the company will have lost an opportunity for much higher valuations.


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    • I totally disagree that this price preformance by AMPE is "the worst preformance I have ever seen in a stock". Lots of companies have there stock go to zero or go BK.

      AMPE has no major coverage because it is under $5 and has no regular source of income. It is in the same position as the other mirco cap drug development companies. Also your analysis of the stock price movement after trails if they are successful is not correct. The price will move directly on the amount of value which could be a move of a few or many dollars.

      AMPE is not a $20 stock today because it has a different marketing strategy and some who disagree with its potential. Hard to fight shorts that have put millions against them in the short term. I continue to happily hold my shares.

    • Agree on all points... with a few others:

      - Once the stock sustains itself over $5 there is a much better chance and opportunity for some major coverage. Many firms cannot/do not make markets/provide coverage for stocks under $5.

      - There are over 3M shares short. Hopefully smart longs are not willing to sell at these low prices. These shorts are going to NEED to cover - and pay whatever they must to do so - in the near future. Hold out as a seller. This 10%+ of the float MUST buy to cover at some point. Don't sell unless YOU MUST if you are long. It could make good gains into truly extraordinary gains.

      - Investor relations is both an art and science. Unfortunately it is common for relatively unsophisticated management of a public company to put someone without the requisite background into this critical position. I ran a public company and made the same mistake of putting a very bright, hardworking child of a major investor into the IR role. HUGE mistake. For me, the shareholders and the major investor. He would have been better off buying his son a company to run - he would have made more money on his stock with good IR than he might have lost on the company he bought for his kid. - Oh well.

      - Ampio's primary concern is rightfully the advancement of the company and its pipeline - not the current level of its stock price. Of course capital needs, lower costs of accessing capital, and the like are important, but they have been judicious in using their capital to advance their pipeline instead of increasing the stock price. But its a matter of balance. I tend to think they are a little (or more than little) light in bringing IR expertise.

      - It will all come out in the wash eventually if their pipeline proves valid and they blow it. May take longer than we'd like, and not garner the support it could, but it is what it is.

      • 2 Replies to roadlesstravelled
      • I agree entirely. The price should be of major concern to management because this is how they raise money. This is how their shareholders are rewarded.

        Ampio's management is excellent at running their business with the exception of the very important aspect of keeping valuations optimized so they have adequate capital.

        Ampio made the same mistake as yours by putting a very young and inexperienced man, Rick Giles in charge of PR and IR. His father is a director and his mother is in a controller role. This has been a huge mistake that is costing shareholder a fortune.

        I know their pipeline very well and believe they will succeed across the board, BUT their stock will never command the kind of valuations it deserves until they have somebody in that slot who knows what they are doing and a CEO who understands the markets better.

        Today is a proof that the company is not know because it has never been vetted by a KNOWN Wall Street banker or analyst. I have done several comps and am convinced their shares would be close to $20 instead of $4. That would only be a market cap of about $800 million.

      • I meant to say "and they DONT blow it"

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