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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • stevemrrtt stevemrrtt Aug 9, 2013 1:10 PM Flag

    AMPE Technicals

    Significant support was broken once 5.40 was violated. On a daily chart there is only nominal support until the 500sma & 200sma, 4.65 area, is approached. Also the weekly 50sma & weekly 100sma is approx 4.50. Stochastics and MACD are, however, are suggesting a bottom may be near by. Volume, obviously most on the sell side, is about 30% higher than normal for this time of day.

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    • technical analysis on a start up such as AMPE is not as reliable as it is for "going concern" companies. there are a number of reasons for that including: ability for a relatively minor amount of shorts or longs to unduly influence the price, a wide variation in trading volumes, and lack of a earnings record and/or forecast. I've used technical analysis for years and strongly support its capabilities; I've also followed AMPE for a few years and watch as it constantly ignores and defies tech analysis... just look at the 2011 - 12 era. it can and will blow trough support and resistance without typical reactions to key ema's, stochastics and momentum indicators. It's ALL about whether - and when - they can "show us the pipeline!"

      • 1 Reply to waywol
      • Technical analysis, in my opinion, is limited by 1) volume 2) length of time the company has been public. In AMPE's case, it has been trading in its current structure for nearly 4 years, plenty of time for indicators (sma, ema, candleticks etc) to function appropriately. The lack of volume is the vulnerability area as the 20day volume average is now only 227k shares per day. Therfore instead of using a fine pen to draw support/resistance, I utilize a thick piece of chalk. Several AMPE posts have been made using technical analysis, all possesing an acceptable accuracy rate.

    • The decline to those levels could be pretty fast the RSI number is pretty weak as the selling starts to feed on itself and current holders get fearful of collapse(no one on this board of course)

      • 1 Reply to imprvngmyavg
      • Yes, the downdraft certainly can accelerate. There is a 61.8% Fib line on a daily chart ( from Feb low to Jun high) just below Friday's low/today's low, at about 5.00. If that level fails to hold the next stop may be the 200sma, 4.65ish. Love those charts as they are agnostic and show what people are doing with their shares, despite all 'spin'.

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