took what I had hoped to be a long position in AMPE late last summer, that would be the summer of 2013, with the hope for a quick jump... a jump that I have seen come and go several times. While still long, I'm not sure I have the stomach for the ride AMPE has been providing lately (i.e. sliding down the parabolic roller coaster). I'm hoping some of the more seasoned, perhaps sage, posters here can lend some insight to the future pipeline of this bubble stock for me.
I'm in a similar situation with my position but volatility is expected with these pre-product biotechs. Ampion will very likely receive approval and generate $700M-1.4B rev/yr. Price will stabilize once BLA is approved (2015) and is above $10 for a quarter, allowing more MF's to purchase. The path after 2016 is less certain pending other, competing developments for OA and MD. Optina is an unknown so contributes to the volatility.
Part 2 --
What happens to the stock this week, this month, this year... who knows. But I would never think of this stock as a "bubble stock". It may have bubbles, for sure. and they will burst, for sure. But in five years, ten years, what this company has will change medicine and the health of hundreds of millions. How that plays from a stock perspective, I don't know ---- but I'm banking on it.
First of all.. I'm seasoned.. not sage. Sage people don't spend as much time was I do on these boards.
Volatility is to be expected, especially with AMPE. AMPE did not take the "normal" route to being a public stock. AMPE (unlike almost every other biotech/biopharma company) never raised venture capital. Venture capital has its own processes and systems for moving companies forward in a predictable manner, and then taking them public with affiliated investment bankers. It is all very planned and controlled. And often very successful. The issue is that the end result is that early shareholders and management usually end up with less than 20% of the company, with the balance going to the venture firm and the investment bankers. AMPE has been very protective of its early shareholders (and management).; I (as an early shareholder) view this as a very good thing. The price, however, is that the predictability (or lack of volatility) is not there. Thus, the stock goes in every different direction - often for no reason that I, at least, can understand.
What makes this all so exciting, however, is that pipeline you ask about. There will be many opinions on that. Some will say its all a scam and a fiction, while others will give their first born as security for more stock based on it.
From my perspective (and I have been involved with the company for decades - long before the public offering), I think that the science behind this company and their drug pipeline is something that is truly astounding. I also believe that what we see, and know about now, just barely scratches the surface. I'm in my 60s and have done much in my life (run public and private companies employing thousands), but I think my support of AMPE will be the best thing I can do for my children and the next generation. I feel that strong about it. But that's me.
Very affirming post, th3...I will keep it close by as this stock gyrates...long term winner and worth the patience and stick-to-it ness that you've modeled here...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
th3, That is what I see also! That was beautiful as Agnew says, If you have been in as long as that, you must have a gut made of steel by now. I clinch each and every day. I bought lots of AMPE with some savings in a cash account. My trophy wife will be checking the quarterly statement ending in March. Oh well. She maybe happy in 6 months or so.
Really "th3" that was a great post and did not mean to jump off subject. I also think this is a Blockbuster in time. I am holding and not trading.
Sentiment: Strong Buy