Publication of positive analyst coverage by Citibank has the potential to bring significant interest and buyers in and of the stock. The reports from Aegis and Emerging Growth Equities were well researched and reasoned. However the audience for those reports was small.
Citi is obviously a different story. it is one of the biggest investment banks in the world. Citi covers thousands of institutions, a significant number of which are small cap investors. It also has a private wealth division which employs advisors who represent high net worth individuals as well as retail brokers who work in the bank's branches.
Literally thousands of eyes will be focused on the name who previously haven't seen it and who will now be free to solicit orders for it and put it in discretionally managed portfolios .The coverage can also be used to open the door to institutions who didn't hear the story on the road show and should soothe apprehension from the stock price decline since the secondary.
The small cap biotech team at Citi is a well respected group of seasoned analysts. Based on the financial data now available regarding the factory costs and other cost inputs, the cost of producing Ampion and the very rich margins are now very ascertainable numbers and were discussed in the recent conference call.
It should not be difficult to model out sales and gross margins based on the size of the K-L 3 and 4 markets at least and an assumption on market penetration.
What those annual numbers will be are going to make the market cap of the stock extremely, extremely cheap.
The company discussed the fact that it had and was entertaining offers from pharma. As I posted earlier the time for pharmas interested in partnering, licensing or buying Ampion who want to separate themselves from what will be a large group of buyers when the Ampion top line data is out on June, will want to make a deal
now before the data when the drug will be completely derisked.
This is precisely why I have been a strong proponent for Ampio doing a major finance with a well known banker.
The day when coverage is initiated, and i agree that it will send shares flying to record highs, but these big bankers move very slowly and hopefully they are close to initiating coverage with a price target that will surprise on the higher side.
One very real danger today is that Ampio admits to speaking now with several big pharma comanies and these companies know EVERYHING about Ampion and OPtina. They may be precluded in an NDA from buying shares in the oen market, but there is nothing to stop them from making a tender offer for the entire company.
We could wake up one morning and there could be a tender offer for the whole company and i believe Ampio shareholders are so worn out and discouraged that they would happily tender their shares for a paltry $25 per share that seem like a lot today, but in my opinion, based ob current comps, is still highly undervalued. We could easily lose the main reason we invested in Ampio if the big boys wake up and decide to move fast enough.
Most likely, they are too cumbersome and to slow to be able to take advantage, but it is unknown and a growing possibility because these guys now know all they need to know about the pipeline.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
$25 is fine with me given uncertainty in Optina and the overall market. We might not see that number until next summer, post-approval. That's not even assured if interest rates rise.
I agree that prospective buyers have a chance to ask more details than we do, but they know nothing more than the company does. In a Double-Blind trial, the company is Blind to the results, and even if they were "leaked" early, they would be serious trouble if they passed that information along to select individuals.
Finally, bankers move when they want to. I have already posted a single example from Jefferies from the same time-frame as their participation in the AMPE SPO. Many others exist. Citi caters to private clientele, so don't expect anything there.
"Jefferies underwrote the AQXP IPO Mar 6, 2014 and issued a Buy recommendation Apr 1, 2014."
Ampio closed their offering Mar 5th. So, what's the excuse?
They have certainly spent a lot recently in the RA space and continue to profit from REGN partnership. They have their own IkB inhibitor program for OA, especially IKK- 2 mediated pathological diseases or conditions, e.g., asthma, rhinitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD). See ClinicalTrials site for Phase I "Safety of Single Doses of SAR113945 and Efficacy and Safety of a New Formulation Given Into the Knee in Osteoarthritis Patients / Part I"
Sanofi, UCB team up in $138M deal aimed at tackling biologic blockbusters
Sanofi is joining forces with UCB to study new small-molecule approaches to treating inflammatory conditions like arthritis, looking for an easier form of administration to some of the blockbuster injected biologics that dominate the field. The pharma giant is ready to spend more than $138 million for a package of milestones and an upfront payment to UCB in exchange for the partnering arrangement with its NewMedicines research arm.
Regeneron currently is responsible for work on a slate of partnered therapies that represent a big part of Sanofi's hopes on new product development.
While the specific target is being kept under wraps, the stakes could be high. The top three rheumatoid arthritis drugs--market leader Humira, Enbrel and Remicade--brought in close to $14 billion for RA alone last year. And analysts are comfortable that they can keep churning out the big bucks with these biologics for some years to come--unless someone can come along to steal the show. An oral therapy that proves just as effective would have a shot at that.
In times like these, Ampio shareholders all need an occasional reminder of why they originally bought in.
We give thanks to ampereviewer of such a reminder and for a solid vote of confidence.
This is clearly a rare buying opportunity and the timing could not be better because we don't have to wait two or three years to see the fireworks.
Ampio shares over exceptionally undervalued.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Nice analysis. This begs the question of the secondary offering. It was most likely a good thing in that it gave Ampio a stronger position and more time to strengthen the company's position instead of feeling pressured to accept a possible offer that was decent but not great, especially if they have a strong belief in their pipeline.
This post makes me want to buy more and more! Well done. I do know that Citigroup is not allowed to release any coverage until 45 days after the close of the offering. Some people are unaware of that.
Where do you get 45 days from? From what I see, NASD Rule 2711 states as follows:
"(2) Secondary Offerings – A member firm acting as a manager or co-manager of a secondary
offering or[sic] is prohibited from publishing or distributing research or making a public appearance regarding
the issuer for ten calendar days following the date of the offering."
The rule is from October 2011./ Has it been supplanted?
Therefore if the company is interested in making a powerful deal for Ampion before the data their negotiating position should be getting stronger with each day that passes between now and 8 weeks when the Step Study top line data will be out. If a deal is going to materialize before the data it should be very soon.
The stock is under pressure as is the entire biotech and particularly small cap space. However the fundamentals have only gotten stronger with the passage of time. When investors are feeling giddy with wealth when their stocks have had big moves is when they should consider lightening up. When they have a pit in their bellies when the price moves down, particularly when everything about fundamental values has remained the same is when they should consider buying. That time is here with Ampio with the co trading with a market cap less than 300 million dollars.
It may trade lower because it is a stock and stocks often trade out of sync with fundamental values That's when bargains are created. This stock is going to explode with a deal with pharma or when the Ampion top line data is released and it becomes undeniably clear that the BLA to sell the drug is a done deal if not before due to analyst coverage or a change in market sentiment re the space.