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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

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  • toolatetrade toolatetrade May 4, 2006 7:03 PM Flag

    If the AHOLE selling thru SIZE

    there may be limited down side but that also applies to the up-side as well. supg got the drug approved and the stock went down on the news. i dumped all 25k shares in the pre market. you can hang in if you want but something tells me that this 5 area is what the street thinks this dog is worth. the vast majority of small cap bios that get fda full approval on a drug see their stock move higher... not lower.

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    • looking at what the street says, and by this i'm looking at the analysts covering this stock, they seem to think that this stock is worth between $7 and $18 (average target $10.75)... depending on who you ask... and this was BEFORE Dacogen was announced.

      can one of them be wrong? yes. can all of them be wrong? i doubt it. would i trust them over the bashers here? most definitely...

      this is a classic case of outlasting market irrationality/manipulation. thank god that i'm long, and not in calls, cuz i am seriously thinking that it is market makers trying to save their own asses. 10 more trading days and they are home free... then this stock should revert back to rational.

      no more positive news coming? that's baloney. we've got dacogen pricing, dacogen sales upside, European approval, Montigen pipeline, Nipent growth, each of these is enough to drive the current consensus target of $10.75 up another 10-20%.

      it simply doesn't take much for hedgies to toy with a small-cap like this. you don't have to be on the sell-side all the time. just take advantage of trading programs, and contribute that extra 2% of sell volume a day to kill the rallies and extend the panics, and you've got this stock under control. too easy.

      i used 4% of my buying power on the day of the announce, and personally propped up this stock price for nearly 30 mins. a hedgie with 1000 times my buying power would have plenty of ammo to keep a lid on this stock for 10 days.

      if you're long and got something that can net you 20% between now and the 19th, then I say go for it. You can always come back to this one. but if you don't, then for god's sake just keep your cool. wait this one out. time is on your side. if you need something to do, go read my past analysis on how this stock is poised to trump all of the existing analyst estimates. ideally, do what warren buffett does, go away for a year and come back to sell. 100% return ($10.75) for 12 months ain't half bad. Good luck all! I've got all the money I can ever use, but looking at the angst on this board, I feel like we can all use a bit of common sense.

      • 2 Replies to amateuress
      • That's just it...all targets not reality. I can say this stock is going $10 but unless it does it is all just a story, no mater how many MBA's or CFA's I have confirming the estimate. It's all just wishful thinking based on educated geussing. SUPG stock does nothing on the approval of its only drug of interest. That is flat out brutal and speaks volumes about what the value of this company is. Rodman and Renshaw have a vested interest in seeing this stock go higher so they'll pump the sh#$%T out of it, as they have done for years on this and any other issue that they death spiral finance for. I saw their note about 700 MM peak sales... Good luck with that.

      • vinzin777 May 5, 2006 2:02 AM Flag

        very well stated. could you provide a little of your background. school, profession, etc. nothing of a personal nature.