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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • quest4value quest4value Aug 25, 2006 10:15 AM Flag

    NPV for Daco--Lo: 253MM Med: 532 Hi 726

    Here are some calcs on the NPV of Dacogen assuming a flat royalty rate of 25%, discount rate of 10% and product life till 2020. Current MOGN projection is 250 MM in US for MDS.
    ****************************
    Worst case NPV: $253MM (Assumes only US approval in MDS)
    Sales Royalty
    2007 75 18.75
    2008 120 30
    2009 150 37.5
    2010 150 37.5
    2011 150 37.5
    2012 150 37.5
    2013 150 37.5
    2014 150 37.5
    2015 150 37.5
    2016 150 37.5
    2017 150 37.5
    2018 150 37.5
    2019 150 37.5
    2020 150 37.5
    ***************************
    Mid case NPV: $532MM (Assumes US and EU approval in MDS, AML in US or EU)
    Year Sales Royalty
    2007 75 18.75
    2008 120 30
    2009 150 37.5
    2010 250 62.5
    2011 400 100
    2012 400 100
    2013 400 100
    2014 400 100
    2015 400 100
    2016 400 100
    2017 400 100
    2018 400 100
    2019 400 100
    2020 400 100
    *****************************
    Best case NPV: $726MM (Assumes US and EU approval in MDS and AML)

    Year Sales Royalty
    2007 75 18.75
    2008 120 30
    2009 150 37.5
    2010 250 62.5
    2011 500 125
    2012 600 150
    2013 600 150
    2014 600 150
    2015 600 150
    2016 600 150
    2017 600 150
    2018 600 150
    2019 600 150
    2020 600 150

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    • Some analyst have it reaching 250M U.S. sales in 2008-if EU and ASIA have 50% of U.S. sales that puts sales around 375M. 27.5% for simplified =103M royalities. Burn of 8M per quarter and we have 71M earnings. 54M outstanding shares and a P/E of 17= 22.35 per share.