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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • lltinvest lltinvest Sep 17, 2007 1:27 PM Flag

    Failure to execute

    All talk & no action on spinout. Besides, the added value would be minimal at best. Let's face it, even with good Dacogen numbers in US we will not see any substancial revenues until later 2008 and beyond. Bet you Dr. M gets his pink slip if the share price is still depressed in January.

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    • Free: A product can be promoted at any level of development, even pre R&D. Look at the post about how well Dr. Berk did at the conference today. He communicated better than Dr. Manuso. That is all I am trying to say.
      SUPG has done a poor job in the past with PR, timing, and presentation. If any or all of these factor improve it can only help increase shareholder value. Sure the positive trial data is the event that we look forward to, however if those trials are not presented well then what good were they? (I would like to see the annoucements 1 hour prior to PHRM'S earnings call.) If the trials are as good as we expect, show superior results vs. Vidazza and SUPG still does not move then we will know that management did a poor job selling the street on the importance of this critical factor. BTW, look at YAHOO's analysts prediction for 2008. What do you see? EPS estimates that do not reflect the estimates that this board has arrived at. They show 12/share loss for 2008. That tells me that SUPG is not communicating well with the handful of analysts that cover this company. How hard can that be?

    • lltinvest,

      As your name indicates, maybe this is the reason you have so little to invest. I think your idea of creating a buying interest with such a shallow approach for a biotech, has disaster written all over it. The one thing you do not want in a bio is for it to get ahead of itself. There are so many trained biotech shorters, that would pounce on the overvaluation. Of all the hair brain ideas I have read on these message boards, yours takes the cake. This marketing idea that you sell the sizzle not the steak, may work
      on some levels, but not with bio's.

      Here's the situation lltinvest and just maybe you will come to a new understanding about this investment. It takes years for a biotech to mature. Name one biotech recently that just fell into it? If your fortuninate to get a approval (which less than 35 drugs a year and there are thousand's of biotech's, then you have to wait for additional approvals that take maybe years. In the mean time your competitor who gambled on a approval or had more capital to look at some advantage, a little earlier than you, gets the news out early, that will mean he get's a little jump on you, the street views this as the early bird gets the worm. Now you can scream at the top of your lungs, that you have a better product, but until it's viewed as approvable in the near future(less than 9 months), well you have to wait your turn. The street wants it documented. Look at PHRM, they have been stating for about a year that survival data coming, however until the update on survival was given, no one was buying this in advance. Now with the speculation that they will get approved in EU and maybe steal some market share from physicans that had ignored these drugs or steal business from Dacogen, then the street rewards heavily. But this situation although is hurtful to us as investors, because we may have the better drug for exactly the same benefit that the street reward our competitor, we have to wait to our news is released to educate the street. If Dacogen didn't look like the better drug, I would be scared, because it's hard to play catch up. Just the fact that they caught vidaza so quickly, indicates that we could do it again. We are going to share this playing field for sometime.

      I believe our AML news may get here before there's. I also believe ours is going to easily be better news for these patients. The street is going to like to hear news about a population that is wide open. Throw in news about exciting combinations here and you have a event almost equal to the survival data just released. We have news coming and that's why we feel the urgency to hear it. Supg and MGi have given us bits and pieces of what's maybe on the horizon.

      A $4 biotech that has the ability to reach out and grab a big piece of a 3B WW MDS market only, well I can wait for that opportunity. I also can wait to see what our first two or three pipeline drugs can demonstrate in ph1 and 2. We are going to see a huge run one day on this investment and it will be worth all the worries and concerns.

      I will be there for it.

    • This is not directed to the MD's, that is MGI domain. This is to the Wall Street Boys. You get well educated good looking babes to present this stuff at the hospitality suite. Regretably this is how it is done. We have to sell CLIMB, Dacogen, the Pipeline and dress up those financial statements. SUPG has to sell itself not only to potential partners but to the Street. Larry Bossidy, Jack Welch, and the other great captains of industry could sell the sizzle where it counted. Just having a great product is not enough anymore. A sweet smile along with a well stocked bar builds relationships better than a 100 posters.

    • You took the words right out of my mouth billy.

      llt, this ain't no iPhone rollout. This is a drug that fights a very serious disease. Putting Playboy bunnies on the stage is not going to buy this company respect. It will generate ridicule.

      SUPG needs to stand on its record and insure that the record is unblemished. By the time the street sees the reality in this market, we will all have gorged ourselves with stock that they will be clammoring to buy. We will be setting the prices, not them.

      Just sit back and let the company do its job. It won't happen overnight, so stick the stock in your IRA and go on vacation or something.

    • You just insist on chewing on your big toe, don't you?

      First off, The stock price is no indication of whether or not a CEO keeps his job. If so, John Chambers of CSCO would have been fired in 2001 when the stock went from $100 to 17. Jen Hsen Huang of NVDA would have been drawn and quartered in 2002 when the stock went from 70+ to 7. There are just too many examples. And poor Hector Ruiz of AMD would be sent back to Mexico tomorrow since his company has gone from 42 to 12.

      Meanwhile, you continue to show your ignorance regarding the history of this company and the significance of Manuso's leadership. Yes, the stock is at 52 week lows, and yes, it has many challenges ahead of it. And yes, there is no guarantee as to how the challenges will be answered.

      But Manuso restructured a company that was awash in red ink. He has converted it from a dead duck to a healthy company with positive cash flow and $100 million in the bank.

      Take your 3000 shares somewhere else. Your petty whining is beginning to bore me.

    • Nothing personal, but you really need to find another "speculative stock" to invest in. You change your mind constantly concerning this stock. Nothing has changed. This takes time. Newsflash, this is a small biotech with a promising pieline and drug. There are other revenue sources and scenarios on the horizon which will drive the stock higher. Manuso is going to be the CEO for a longtime. Contrary to the sentiment on this message board he is doing a good job. POSITIVE CASH FLOW, DRUG IN IND, GROWING REVENUES, NO DEBT, AND 100 MILLION IN CASH. My mission for you is to find one small biotech that can make the same claims. Just one.