Said on conference call there were no negative trends with Dacogen and wanted to be conservative because there was some seasonality to Dacogen and less people were treated during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Said they were expecting EORTC trial results in first half of 2008 but wouldnt be more specific. AML trial of 480 patients to be fully enrolled end of 2008 with first results a year later.
basical for Dacogen, the market is expending, the trend is up. The reason they guided 115m is because during thanksgiving and Christmas season the drug usage slows down a little bit. they want to be conservative
The sounded pretty confident and honest on the call
<<Is this logical?>>
It is logical, but that doesn't mean it will happen. There is a herd mentality on Wall Street, and lately the herd has not been running towards SUPG.
One day, someone is going to wake up and say "Hey, look at this little biotech with solid earnings." Then the volume will expand and so will the price.
Part of the uncertainty was lifed today with the info on the Aug and Sep sales. And with the info of at least 115M in sales for 2007.
I would expect that as a result, the pps should increase tomorrow. Is this logical?
There has been a disconnect for the past several months. It is a "show me" market, and there is too much uncertainty with this company.
Disconnects between trading prices and real value are not unusual on Wall Street.
It's very simplistic. I just assign a PE of 20 to the royalty figure and assume all other expenses will be break even due to milestone payments.
So if the company gets 25% royalties on 130 M of sales, income would be 32.5 M. A PE of 20 gives us a market cap of 650 M. Divide that 650 M by 57.48 million shares outstanding for 11.3 on Dacogen sales (I am a bit low on that). Add 1.50 for the cash on hand and guess at the value of the pipeline.
Honestly, the pipeline should be worth much more than $2.20 but since nothing is beyond phase 1, it is better to be conservative with it.