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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • jelly1126 jelly1126 Oct 26, 2009 5:15 PM Flag

    I liked this conference call

    Some takeaways...

    1. GSK paid 3.03 per share
    2. GSK will only get 2 lead candidates and 2 backup candidates. They are not giving away the store here.
    3. Guidance for 2009 revised to profitability from small losses.
    4. EISAI and JNJ still "highly committed" to Dacogen
    5. AML study nearing completion (hope it was well designed)
    6. MP470 reformulation gives better bioavailability and is ready for phase 2.
    7. SGI1776 confirmed to be in clinics (phase 1)
    8. SGI 110 scheduled for phase 1 trials early next year
    9. Bearss did NOT have a falling out with the company. (This is very significant IMO.)

    It also sounds like SGI110 (S110) is not a part of the GSK deal, so we can still look forward to a partnering with either EISAI, JNJ, or some other willing part on this one. We should see some good things on this drug in the next year or two.

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    • If you were referring to the 65% as opposed to the 35% I did completely miss your point. My bad... ;-)

      I agree that the 65% should be easier to earn than the 35%, and I wouldn't be surprised to see announcements in early 2010 that at least one milestone will have been hit. Still, I am skeptical that SuperGen will be able to earn ALL of that money simply because the deal is so complicated.

      I believe you are right about having already identified the targets. They specifically referenced "epigenetic therapies" and that is certainly the target. Have the candidates been identified? I don't think so, but that could be the first milestone.

      Something I'm curious about is the 2 backup candidates. The way I interpret this is that GSK gets to take two compounds "out the door" and take them through the clinical trials. As they advance, more milestone payments would be owed but if one of them "fails" GSK gets a replacement. Also, who owns the backup candidates in the event that the two lead candidates make it all the way to approval?

      How would the milestone payments be affected in this scenario? Does SuperGen get the full $375M only if the two lead candidates get approved? Would there be additional payments tied to the backup candidates?

      I seem to recall that details of the MGI and Montigen deals were outlined in 8K filings. I hope we can get some similar filings for this deal. There are just too many questions.

    • I to like the conference call many positives.