For all you long time regulars harken back to the time when I was under attack by Deb and KY Jelly and his alias' for stating there was nothing they could do to extend their patent protection past 2013. Deb and Jelly you will recall stated I must be an idiot because there were tons of on going Dacogen trials and why they be doing these if they couldnt get a patent extension. Well after Dr Jims dire warnings yesterday we now know who was right... me.
Having patted my self on the back in the true KY style lets look at what went on in the call. I believe they are prudently covering their behinds and nexts years revenue numbers will be well above 100 million. Even though they have not yet received a 6 month patetent extension until Nov 2013 . I believe
there is an above 90 % chance they will get it. Virtually every branded drug that has done a pediatric study and there have been hundreds has gotten the 6 month extension. Believe it or not even Viagra had done a pediatric study,
More importatnly since the pathway to generic approval is more complicated for Vidaza and Dacogen than a simple bio availability study and Vidaza has still not faced generic competition after their patent expiration I believe it is unlikely Dacogen will see a generic for 2 or 3 years.
On the down side looks like they sold SRPT way too early but were probably happy to get anything for it. They still list MP470 as an active project on their website. There promise to report clinical results on AT -5719. goes unmentioned. These are some of the reasons these guys have zero credibility on the street and the price is where its at
As for KY a few days ago he sings the praises and talks about how he's looking for 20 bucks a share , a few days later he's saying 2 before 8. Gee who else used to say that I wonder if we were all duped and they are actaully the same person?
KY will now come back and attack me for all my alleged bad buys and tell us about his silver and how he bought Astex for 3 cents a share. Believe it or not Im not here to attack him but just to show no one is ever right all the time and he should admit it and stop attacking everyone.
This is high risk investing and we are all pretty dependent on S-110 results and the HSP 90 inhibitor.
My own view is this is still a good risk reward situation and a good entry point. If
we do get a bounce I wouldnt wait for 20 with this management team in place. I believe they are under promising and will over deliver for 2013
And finally if you are stil reading the board Towann.... GFY