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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • I bought 7900 shares around the 2.33 and up, got filled. I'm thinking we see an announcement on SGI-110 entering the clinics in a ph2 in Liver cancer. That's my guess on the secret trial. Now would ASTX be moving into other ph2's unless they were confident that mds/aml is showing promise? I still believe we have a rocky road ahead with uncertianity with dacogen generic. However, good news on sgi-110 and hsp90 at ASH trumps generic news late 2013. They could partner sgi-110 shortly after ASH. In todays world, upfront $50M, milestones in excess of $200M+, depending what percentage ASTX wants on this drug in royalities. Or they could take this themselves. I'm sure Dr. M wants to see a actual drug reach approval, under his tenure. What is ASTX worth with approval:

    Let's say that i'st better than Dac/Vid Currently we are looking at $700M in revenues a year. Let's say after expenses they net out $250M. That is about $2.50 a share. Give it a conservative PE of 15. We are looking at $37 a share stock. Now throw in Ovarian/Liver/other solid tumors. We could be looking at north of $75.

    Last week I got down on astx. So often they let us down. I was glad the street didn't over react on the update. I think we are about to see something we have never seen before. (Line from the Movie Secretariat) . Don't listen to the odd balls rory,mero,think, batzem. They wouldn't know a good stock if it kick them in the head.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "Don't listen to the odd balls rory, mero, think, batzem."

      I feel "left out."


    • They will not partner at13387 or sgi-110 those are projects they solely want to own they've stated it repeatedly however the rest of what you said was interesting.

      • 1 Reply to mdbob86
      • mdbob,

        They have not stated they would take sgi110 or at13387 up the line. He has stated he would partner drugs to balance risk/reward. He was asked once about taking a drug further and he said he would not rule it out. However, we as investors would like to see an approvable drug that astx controls. Let's say they work the same deal under a partnership on sgi-110, what would that mean for astx. Assuming that it is superior to dac/vid and that it takes market share of 700M a year. Under the dacogen percentages this woud mean the first 200M in revenues would get an average 25% and the next 500M would get 30% treatment.

        $50M + 150M =$200M a year. Partnered + all the milestones. I'm very conservative on my numbers if they take it themselves up the line. We could see something like $350M a year profit on them keeping the drug in house. Basically that would point to a $50 a share value. Hopefully we see it one day work out.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • you have a reading comprehension problem in addtion to your other ailments. Today 75 bucks last week 2 before 8 . Im now sure you are also posting under rory alias in addition to the other 5 0r 6 you are using. \

      • 1 Reply to batzem
      • Name them and I will ask them to take my test. I have admitted to hate,free. What other alias am I? Yeah I argued with rory for 5 years and you think we are the same person. The 2 before 8 was a joke. I understood we would take a hit on the share price, it could have been worse. Unlike you I read some stuff over the weekend and look at where astx pipeline is headed. BTW before the earnings update, I had a target on astx of $25. So all that changed was the short term picture. I'm stated we are going after Liver cancer, let's see if I'm correct.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy