We know that ASTX has about $1.5 per share in cash
We know that the ww market for decitabine is over 1.2 B
We know that SGI-110 is the follow on product for Dacogen with 100% revenue going to ASTX
Now lets make some assumptions
1 - a generic version of Dacogen will come out and lets guestimate that WW royalty revenue will be steady at 40M. I said WW.
2 - SGI-110 if better then current decitabine drugs can capture 1/2 to 3/4 of the 1.2B.
3 - SGI-110 can be successful in other cancers
4- pipeline is healthy and growing.
Not a bad investment given today's inflated stock prices and low cost of money. 9 to 10 a far price to take a chance on.
CELG buying ASTX would probably raise antitrust issues with the FTC since Dacogen is the only real competition for Vidaza. Also, I know CELG is going to report Ph III for Vidaza in AML this year, but what "replacement" are you talking about (I thought Revlimid in Ph III isn't for same class of MDS patients)? A different delivery method (isn't oral Vidaza is in Ph II)? I'm confused and I really value your input so I need to find out what I'm missing.
You need to factor in Astex was purchased with management saying there is 2 billion in potential payments, if these drugs get approved and they meet sales targets, Given 138 million in cash, Dacogen European sales for AML patients I believe will offset generic product in the US, If a generiic product.comes doesnt it need FDA approval? Any company making the investment needs to look at s110 results and say, how long would a generic be on the market for Dacogen?
8 or 9 dollars is a steal. I still believe Manu so wants payment for his boat load of $10 options.