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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Apr 29, 2013 10:51 AM Flag

    Do you think

    Do you think we hold $5 in the after market hours of trading? The volume has dried up, this will difinite lead to the shorts preying on the carcus of astex. One last opportunity to unload at $6.85. It's been a nice run, but time is running out.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • Your relentless bashing has had no effect on the stock. Maybe you should let up for a while and see how this plays out. The negatives you have relentlessly discussed are well known and yet the stock has continued its run making yet another new high today. I respect your opinion, but I am becoming skeptical of your motives.

      You keep stressing cash burn of 10 million per quarter and 14 million payout due in 2014. IMO, the 14 million payout is a nonissue. I have seen the company make these payouts before and they always do it in a way that has the least effect on the financials. In previous years, with the share prices undervalued, they made these payments in cash. Now, with the share prices having made a nice run, they will be likely to make the payment in stock and as I said before, U am willing to suffer this 2% dilution. It is negligible.

      With regard to the burn, you insist on ignoring the potential offsets from cash burn through milestone payments. The company has partnerships on no less than 5 compounds, at least two of which are in phase two trials. It is the nature of this game that you can not know when a milestone will be hit, but we should expect at least one in the current year. Add to this the $5 million they will get when European sales for Dacogen reach $100 million (this is inevitable and will assuredly happen this year).

      The company is certain to see declining sales when a generic competitor for Dacogen comes on the market but the story here has nothing to do with Dacogen and everything to do with the pipeline and $2 billion worth of potential milestone payments.

      Essentially, the stock will react to guidance, not cash burn. You might even find that while the company will report a loss today their cash position will increase yet again.

      • 1 Reply to jelly1126
      • bucket, every day you say we will crash. when tomorrow comes and we don't dip below $5, will you please think about keeping your delusions to yourself. You take a good (expanded trial) and act like its a negative. You say we are losing money because we are spending more on trials and you act like its a bad thing, even though we can finance this burn rate for a few years.
        Why not just stop all trials, shut everything down and we can share dacogen revenues? Listening to you, this nonsense seems to be your desire.
        Glad Misty gave you a plate full, we are all tired of your misleading crapola.