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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

  • bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 13, 2013 11:49 AM Flag

    Do some DD

    This maybe ahead for sales of Dacogen. I found one quarter a while back that had a sharp drop in sales of Dacogen. This was attributed to over selling in the previous quarter and a refund for unused product. With the generic announcement, could eisai in the 4th quarter have to buy back product that was replaced with generic versions? It seems that we do know the numbers now for the third quarter and ballpark revenues will be around $18M. Add this too the previous quarters and compare to estimate of $63M for the year, the 4th quarter number would come in around $5M in revenues. Expenses around $23M so the loss will be conservative $12M (could be as high as $18M loss). Then in the first quart where full impact will be felt and payment of $14M to former astex boys, which by the way can be in stock. You could see dilution of $14M divided by the share price, another 3-5M shares. The shorts will have a feeding frenzy around this time. Even astex former owners may want to short the stock, giving them additional shares.

    If there's a delay in data for ASH, then all bets off and you see much lower share price. Pumpettees want to play games, we'll look deeper and deeper. I cannot address each and every ID. First it serves no purpose. Second all the pumpettees can do is look backwards and the street looks 6 months in advance. There also seems to be no pumpettee with any real insights. I see a bunch of cowards with big mouths and little substance to fabricate with. One idiot pretended he made an actual profit out of thin air. But that's what pumpettees do, they fabricate.

    The reimbursements on generics always see a motivating event attached to them. Since most patients that get these drugs are elderly, medicare likes to save money where they can.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • S-8 filed with 250,000 additional shares of dilution.

      Sentiment: Sell

      • 2 Replies to bucketlist88
      • Once again your information is inaccurate. The S8 filing is a registration of the Employee stock purchase plan. I have read through the filing, and it specifically states that shares will be "purchased" for the employee. It does not state that the company will "issue new shares."

        There is no dilution, although there would be an expense if the purchase price is below the market price. The company accounts for this expense on the financial statement.

      • Ohooo! I am scared!
        Panic; hide the kids and the women.
        If you have these ideas and you have sold them why stay on the board with stupid talk?
        Gee maybe you are working the stock as a trader and have to cover soon.
        Guess what play with fire and one day you will get burned very badly!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy