1) cash -- slightly more than 100 million;
2) Q/Q growth accelerates (4th Q over 3rd Q is 57% roughly for both total and new subscribers);
3) New full launch of R-drug (this one has much greater market potential than D-drug);
4) Market cap is around 150 million dollars, which is relatively low for the above;
5) I predict the company can break even and make profit starting from next quarter with net revenue of around 30 million.
6) Based on the above, share price should be at $6 ~ $9 range.
BTW, we are controlled now and the price will be up after this week after options expire.
This company will not breakeven at 30 million per qtr let alone a profit. During OPEX last month people said the same thing. They said the Max Pain for Feb was $3.50 so why would the price rise after this months OPEX?? Anyone can toss statements out there. Show us your numbers that will enable this company to make a profit on 30 million in net sales. Have you seen their expenses? They are bleeding money at the moment and one qtr will not stop the blood loss.
I don't have time to explain in detail, just some clues for you:
The most recent month of the just released Q report, D-drug sale is about $6.1 million. Assume it will grow (not 57% over the previous quarter) but by 30%. This gives you three months sale number of $7.93 million, 10.31 million, and $13.4 million. Then you may use a less growth number, such as 20% to give you sale numbers for the rest of the year;
Assume profit margin is 30% of total sales. that will give you total net revenue for the years. Then, see what you come up with.
Note the above exercise is even excluding R-sale number. I have to run.
Thank for making that clear. My assumption is sale of D-drug will continue increase but in a slightly slow path, such as 30% increase instead of 57% in the next several quarters but we will see the sale of R-drug up significantly (at this point, I only give the sale of R-drug 1/5 of its predicted peak sale for next year.
Someone is talking about secondary. I guess they must live in Mars.
The publication of sale number makes think much easy now: if share price continually drifts low, buy; if share price increases, either hold or buy or sell. The only think still does not turn in my favor is the style of this management, it's too conservative and I don't know the reason.