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Horizon Pharma plc Message Board

  • arhdan9 arhdan9 Feb 12, 2013 8:24 AM Flag

    My Two Cents in Two Minutes

    1) cash -- slightly more than 100 million;
    2) Q/Q growth accelerates (4th Q over 3rd Q is 57% roughly for both total and new subscribers);
    3) New full launch of R-drug (this one has much greater market potential than D-drug);
    4) Market cap is around 150 million dollars, which is relatively low for the above;
    5) I predict the company can break even and make profit starting from next quarter with net revenue of around 30 million.
    6) Based on the above, share price should be at $6 ~ $9 range.

    BTW, we are controlled now and the price will be up after this week after options expire.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • This company will not breakeven at 30 million per qtr let alone a profit. During OPEX last month people said the same thing. They said the Max Pain for Feb was $3.50 so why would the price rise after this months OPEX?? Anyone can toss statements out there. Show us your numbers that will enable this company to make a profit on 30 million in net sales. Have you seen their expenses? They are bleeding money at the moment and one qtr will not stop the blood loss.

      • 1 Reply to bsneutralizer1513
      • I don't have time to explain in detail, just some clues for you:

        The most recent month of the just released Q report, D-drug sale is about $6.1 million. Assume it will grow (not 57% over the previous quarter) but by 30%. This gives you three months sale number of $7.93 million, 10.31 million, and $13.4 million. Then you may use a less growth number, such as 20% to give you sale numbers for the rest of the year;

        Assume profit margin is 30% of total sales. that will give you total net revenue for the years. Then, see what you come up with.

        Note the above exercise is even excluding R-sale number. I have to run.

    • Hi Arhdan9,

      That's very good summary, but I think your revenue number of $30 million must be for the whole year right so 15 times eps gives $6 ~ $ 9 share range.

      I guess insiders and hedgefund who actually own this company don't want to see their money stuck in this narrow range for good.

      So they must have their next step of action.

      All the best and good luck,


      • 1 Reply to antimachine_kudo
      • Hello Machine,

        Thank for making that clear. My assumption is sale of D-drug will continue increase but in a slightly slow path, such as 30% increase instead of 57% in the next several quarters but we will see the sale of R-drug up significantly (at this point, I only give the sale of R-drug 1/5 of its predicted peak sale for next year.

        Someone is talking about secondary. I guess they must live in Mars.

        The publication of sale number makes think much easy now: if share price continually drifts low, buy; if share price increases, either hold or buy or sell. The only think still does not turn in my favor is the style of this management, it's too conservative and I don't know the reason.

        Good luck to you too.


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