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Horizon Pharma plc Message Board

  • vhughes60 vhughes60 May 15, 2013 9:41 PM Flag

    Can someone explain intelligently.....

    The inconsistent rises and falls outside of factual news and data on this stock? From a % perspective, there's a fair bit of money to be made in short periods of time on both sides. I don't pretend to be sophisticated in stock buying but right now like the long term investment this stock represents based on basic research and the dialogue from those of you who take the time to give "real" analysis and insight on this board. However, the opportunity remains while waiting on the long term to make $ on the swings in this stock in the short term. Please no extreme responses, just honest and insightful.

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    • low volumn because no news, day trader jump in and out. I myself unloaded 1/3 of my holding this morning for vacation money.

    • I'm not sure how you'd characterize the action in this stock as "inconsistent", so I'm not quite sure I understand your question, but I'll give it a shot. The stock has been more-or less "locked" in a range running from the $2.10's to the $2.80's since November with the strongest band running from the $2.20's to the $2.50's (about a fifteen percent "swing" in the more narrow band) so you're right - this is a fairly reliable trading stock with good long term prospects for growth as long as you don't get too aggressive on the high side of the channel. I've been fairly successful buying blocks of shares every time the stock drops below $2.30 and selling at a 10 to 20% gain on each upward excursion EXCEPT on those occasions when there's been high volume (those are rare) in which case I have sold as the RSI gets into technically overbought territory for considerably greater gains.

      If you're holding for a long-term gain, I'd say any price level below $2.50 is a solid buy. If you are looking to perform shorter-term trades I'd look for an entry point at or below $2.30 and keep a close eye on volume. Keep in mind that this stock has a low float and a declining short interest, and that (like most small-caps in this space) cash flow is a perennial problem which may, in time, necessitate another Secondary Offering of equity or debt which could impact PPS fairly drastically.

      As to the underlying basis for the non-news "moves" in the stock - you'll probably get as many opinions on that as there are traders/investors. You get THAT one figured out, and you'll probably get rich just selling the methodology. Good luck to you.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to mikerconfer
      • Thank you to those who responded - very helpful. Mike, I have enjoyed reading your posts. Intelligent, yet worded simple enough to understand for the relative novice. There's other stocks I follow and peruse their MB for valid insight, but most of them are filled with garbage spin and 1 liners. Keep up the good work!

      • thanks, Mike, for a level-headed analysis of this stock.....I'm new to investing/Horizon and enjoy reading some reasoned point of view......I, like in at the high end.....$2.80...and am under water with my position (this is a spec stock for I'm not under any illusion that this stock isn't a #$%$-shoot)......I'm not educated enough with getting in and out of a position like you mentioned above.....can you recommend any reading/book for me to understand your success?.....

        Sentiment: Hold

    • I think it might have something to do with short having to cover by buying stock etc. Volumes plays a big part. There is a dilution coming soon though. So stock will fall sharply. Unfortunately I bought this stock at the wrong time/price

      • 1 Reply to sergei971
      • I think that worst case, sergei, you're not looking at dilution before mid-year 2014 and perhaps not then in sales keep ramping up on Rayos and Duexis and IF they can get Covidien straightened out. Q1 cash burn was very high, but that was to be expected with launch-related expenditures. Q2 should look a lot better and if it does, I think we'll all be fairly happy with the results.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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