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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

  • ballen2123 ballen2123 Jul 9, 2013 1:21 PM Flag

    2nd quarter Earnings projection

    After looking at first quarter earnings unearned premiums were up 14.2 mil and last year second quarter we earned .18 per share if we earn 2 mil on the premiums written in the first quarter given the second quarter is one of the lowest payout quarters we get .18+.25 giving us .43 per share but this number I feel is still to low for an earnings estimate if you add more on for investments gains. Does anyone feel .50 or higher is possible for the second quarter?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I think your estimates for 2nd quarter sound good. But I would be very happy with just the .43, plus a couple of cents more. Though .50 is possible, I personally lean closer to .45 estimate than the .50. But FNHC surprised us a lot on the long ride down; it may also surprise us on the way up. Best of luck to you and to all. -Scott.

      • 1 Reply to scottr2958
      • if we get .40 or over it should spike up pretty good since we have a lot of unearned premium for future use. also it's obvious that the volume is at the very low end & any good news should bring in higher volume on the buy side! there seems to be a small amount of shares available at the current price & good news travels fast/ especially before we will know it! 40+43+45=128 divided by three opinions =42.7 & we will all take that figure (with up to .50 possible). we can't all be wrong? right!

    • Here's a summary of stock prices of FNHC over the past 4 years:

      March-October 2009, low of $1.70 and high of $4.60.
      March 2010 to May 7, 2012, low of $2.30 and high of $4.70.
      From Apr-June, 2012, base of $4 per share.
      In Aug 2012, decisively broke $5 per share.
      In Mar 2013 decisively broke $6 per share.
      In Apr 2013 decisvely broke $7 per share.
      In May 2013 decisively broke $8 and $9 per share.
      From May-July 2013 has sometimes closed above $10 per share.
      But it often has fallen back into the high $9s.

      A good earnings report about the 2nd quarter, should put us decisively into the $10s.
      But lets not lose patience.
      If every 3 months, we can break through the next dollar we should be very happy.

18.05+0.08(+0.45%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT