don't we need to blow through the 02 lows before a bottom begins ? those days seem like a utopia compared to what is happening now. dot com crash, enron done, etc... there were some issues for sure. but now ? everything is history, more akin to 90-91.
i'm guessing we'll see south of 700 on the S&P by feb 09. the big question is how long will it be before we are back to 900. i'm buying the SPY's now but expecting to avg down in a big way over the next 3-4 months.
full disclosure: i capitulated in oct 02 and sold the SPY's at 77, an intra day low that you cannot even see on the charts. within two weeks, they were at 90.
i think "they" will take another run at all of us and push us down to the oct 10th low at some point to try and get more of our shares. While my portfollio is beaten to death to a point i never imagined it could get to...im sort of getting used to this and for those of us left in this crap hole of a market it is getting easier to just "hang on" than it was say in Oct.