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Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend F Message Board

  • rhianni rhianni Feb 25, 2013 12:00 PM Flag

    AOD thoughts

    I've been accused of only trash talking others (not true) so to prove it here are my thoughts on AOD...
    AOD has tried holding onto $4.00 but looks like it couldn't. I don't see you guys getting your long targets.
    Looking at AOD post dividend cut it continues to do what it always has for years.
    When the S&P rises it rises less.
    When the S&P falls it falls more.

    S&P is due for a pullback. Everyone is expecting it. I have my SPY May puts bought. For AOD... no this is not a buying opportunity. Surely there are far better choices out there for capital gains AND for income.
    I am long PSEC, SPLS, STX. Also looking at SWY if it can get some pullback after its last earnings.

    Seriously. why anyone is long AOD is beyond me.

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    • On a NAV basis, the fund began the year at $4.54. With the S&P down 28 handles today, the fund NAV closed at $4.56, or +$.02 y-t-d. Add to that the Jan/Feb dividends of $.055 and $.027 and the cumulative return to date this year is $.102. The y-t-d % return is therefore .102/4.54, or 2.25% -- annualized, 13.5%.
      A bullish argument for the stock is that the dislocation between the fund NAV and the stock price of over 14% is, unwarranted. If the investment performance of the new managers stabilizes the fund NAV, the discount should mitigate and return to a more reasonable valuation relative to actual NAV.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • If you look at their track records it has been awful - I am ready to take a chance with the new fund managers. I like their recent decision to cut the dividend. My reasons to make a limited investment at prices below $4.00:

      1. Trading at hefty discount to NAV 2. Insiders were recent buyers at $4.00 3. New fund management.
      4. Monthly dividends which should now approximate investment income

      Sentiment: Buy

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