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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • e1ndofwar e1ndofwar Apr 24, 2012 3:18 PM Flag

    Due Dillegence

    Given the recent quarterly report of Intuitive we have a pretty good sense of how well Firefly is doing. However, since KCI was in effect taken private last year there seems to be no way to get a heads up on how the KCI/NVDQ relationship is developing particularly as it relates to system placements. Any thoughts on this?
    regards endo

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    • Something to consider... we'll see the first full Q for surgical and wound care procedures from the Nov 30, 2011 agreement with KCI.

    • Endo:
      Not particularly knowledgeable, but it seems to me the 1Q financials will take some understanding -- all the way from "write off the kitchen sink" in anticipation of gangbusters thereafter to something better. Imponderables include the accounting treatment of rental systems -- amount capitalized and amortization --, pre-marketing PinPoint expense, and IPO financing expense. A wildcard is the non-cash warranty revaluation, potentially sizable but hopefully cured by now. Guidance and Dr. Menowat's characterization will be important of course. Number of systems placed and consumables may prove secondary.

      All the foregoing relative to the market's knee-jerk reaction to the May 4 release and CC. As I have suggested, NVDQ's true valuation should look beyond the quarter.

      • 1 Reply to diogenes1234
      • Diogenes
        I believe you will agree that while system placements and consumables might be secondary to some related to 1st quarter results, I consider both to be of critical importance even near term. We know the Intuitive relationship is going exremely well, it will be interesting to see how well the KCI relationship is producing placements,unless some of you oldtimers here believe it is still to soon to determine.

    • Thanks for the consolation. Yes the imaging agent was supposed to be used for diagnosing pancreatitis disease but it failed. I was hoping that agent will also be useful for diagnosing pancreatic cancer (phase II trial is going on). According to the management it has a $100M market opportunity for pancreatitis alone. I am out for now but I won't be surprised if this stock recovers within the next 6 months especially given the fact that preliminary pancreatic cancer results are due in the first half of 2012. Of course this is not a therapeutic drug, it is just an imaging agent. So this won't compete THLD.

      I am out of AVII too. Resignation of the chief scientific officer was a great disappointment for me. I took that as him not seeing any future in AVII. I might be wrong. I will get in if insiders start buying.

      Good luck!

    • Unless you find somebody that works fro KCI, I doubt you'll be able to find an inside track on how placements are going. The good news is that with ISRG placing 100+ daVinci units per quarter and a healthy portion of those equipped with Spy, chances are good that NVDQ will exceed 100 units per quarter between KCI and ISRG.

      • 1 Reply to tredleon
      • kartallaryuksektenucar kartallaryuksektenucar Apr 26, 2012 12:09 AM Flag

        Hi Tred, what is your revenue estimate for the quarter and for the next 3 years for NVDQ. The two analysts following this stock are projecting 4.5 M for the quarter, $22.8M for the year, and $90M for 2015. I am not very impressed with these numbers. I don't think this growth rate can justify the current valuation $265M. I believe I am missing something here.

        I compare these numbers with another stock I follow (RGEN). They will have $50M revenue in 2012 and over $100M revenue in 2013 (if a drug is approved, which is pretty much a safe bet). RGEN looks to me a much better investment than NVDQ as things stand now.

        My investability ranking for my favorite stocks (and some yours as well are as follows).

        AVII (I dropped this one)

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