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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

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  • andersongordon Nov 2, 2012 11:54 AM Flag

    Looks very interesting

    Currently this new technology is being marketed by two leading companies Life Cell and Intuitive Surgical. They are in the initial stages of roll-out. Less than 2 years for a new technology that is a game changer for surgeons, hospitals, medical insurance and patients. All win with this new technology. A typical adoption curve looks like an "S" curve (sigmoidal function for math wonks). The adoption starts very slowly with first time users and thought leader (surgeons). Once adoption gets to around 15-20% it takes off very rapidly. With Life Cell (breast reconstruction) they are currently at 11% adoption rate and are increasing around 1% per quarter. My modelling show positive earnings 2 or 3 quarters away. This was also aluded to in the conference call. The two big 500 pound gorillas in the room are "Pinpoint" and LUNA's diabetic and wound treatment potential. Both are in the pre-commertial phase. To put things in perspective the current Life Cell and Intuitive markets are around 160k proceedures per year versus 6000+k for these two new ventures. Enjoy the ride.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • GSA - You nailed it - if someone was only looking at the initial LifeCell and Intuitive markets, there may be an argument for this stock being a bit ahead of itself on valuation. The Pinpoint and KCI/wound care market opportunities dwarf the LifeCell and Intuitive markets and adoption should be more rapid. 2013 will still be about LifeCell and Intuitive, but 2014 will take the growth curve to a whole new level - it will be quite a ride.

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