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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • e11ndofwar e11ndofwar Apr 19, 2013 7:05 PM Flag

    Fish and Andersongordon

    Any thoughts on the recent developments would be appreciated.
    regards endo

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    • andersongordon Apr 22, 2013 7:42 AM Flag

      This was expected. I wrote about it last quarter before the earnings. There were anachdotal indications that the results were known by NVDQ. I indicated that there was word on the street that NVDQ had already aquired 10 sales persons for PINPOINT and that they were actively looking to add "50" more. At $1 million revernue per sales person (last CC statement) within 6-12 months of hire, the math shows they were expecting revenue to move from ~$7 to ~$21 per quarter within a year. Its even better than this indicates because their current revenue is shared ~50/50 with Life Cell or ISRG. The PINPOINT is 100% NVDQ. Once fixed expenses are covered the return to the bottom line for PINPOINT should be 2 to 3 times what they get for their current revenue. If----If they can aquire the needed sales force and the rest of the PILLAR report is as good as the interim report, expect to be at ~$1 forward earnings per share this time next year. With growth rates in excess of 40% forseen for years to come, the P/E should be 6 + EPS Growth Rate= 45+ .

      My adoption curve for NVDQ is fuzzy at best because there is no good way I have found to track their progress except CCs. With Da Vinci I could track hospitals directly or Doctors/machines indirectly. My sense is their exposure through ISRG and LIFE CELL, coupled with the type of papers (PILLAR) that should be coming out will accelarate the adoption even faster than Da Vinci. Da Vinci started after the two companies merged in 2003 and were ~80% penetration in hospitals in 10 years. My gut feeling is NVDQ technology's adoption will be twice as fast with terminal market for blood profusion at $3 Billion/yr and as of yet an undefined market size for their cancer drugs.


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