It's very early in the adoption curves but with each quarter comes more data to calibrate. Here are my best estimates:
System Sales: Kit Sales:
Firefly 78 1621
Spy Elite 65 4288
Luna 7 75
PINPOINT 8 126
Revenue $4.20 MM $3.96 MM Total Revenue including Service, & Royalty $ 9.33 MM
Analyst Average: Revenue $8.60 Earnings per share ($0.03)
Gross Margins 57.6%
Total Net Income (loss) ($2.83 MM) or ($0.06) per share
This excludes the warrant impacts on earnings from stock price appreciation.
I believe the company is focusing on R&D, Marketing Assets, and Studies showing the superiority of this new technology. I believe this to be the best strategy. I don't see them going positive ongoing earnings until Q3 2014. But by then their revenue growth rate will have accelerated to 80+ % per year.
Thank you for sharing your detailed analysis of NVDQ and ISRG. Regarding NVDQ I think the share price may moderate between now and earnings and maybe afterwards as well. I think they are a strong mid to long term winner but some subset of retail investors will look no further than higher expenses and the fact that NVDQ has not yet reached profitability. The market typically undervalues investment in future growth in part because often it is just companies throwing money at a product because it is not gaining traction. I don't believe that will be the case here. I think their product offerings and value prop are VERY strong. I still have some non-specific concerns about the effectiveness of their home grown sales organization. That is to say that I have no specific reason to be negative. Only that it is not a forgone conclusion that they can build an effective sales organization from scratch on the first try, or at all. Again,, I have no reason to think it is not going well, only that this is an areas I am watching carefully. I have a significant position (for me) in NVDQ which I have held for several years. If I didn't I would definitely consider adding on dips.