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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • andersongordon May 30, 2014 8:22 AM Flag

    The Pendulum has Stopped

    The price pendulum for NVDQ was pushed too far to the left when Institutional investors finally discovered the new and exciting company called Novadaq with its "Disruptive" technology in the large poorly supplied medical field of Diagnostics (multi billion dollar markets in US and international). This company that has not yet produced one penny of positive earnings went from $3 to $24 in a few years! Then coincident with a disastrous quarter from neighboring ISRG (caused primarily by two factors, 1) 70% uncertainties surrounding Obamacare, 2) 30% rollout of a new machine making the existing SI model a second generation "obsolete" option). A large institutional investor unloaded 500k shares at $24 and change....thus the pendulum by shear gravity overcame the buying bias and reversed course. As copycat institutions also began to unload "in the money shares, take money off the table, reduce risk,....etc." the Short sharks could taste the blood in the water and joined in the frenzy. The pendulum was now being at first drawn towards a neutral price and then was pushed beyond into an oversold price on momentum and fuel from Shorters (now over 2 million shares). When the Shorters risk reward diminishes to nothing and the institutional selling has burnt itself out the pendulum will reverse. Based on the miniscule volumes of late I suspect the institutions are done and now only Shorter can sustain the sell momentum. At $14@ Novadaq is well under the fundamental price (NPV calculation methodology). Shorters short at great peril at these prices. If the upcoming quarterly results indicate NVDQ PINPOINT and LUNA are for real, the pendulum will reverse and reverse hard.

    We may have seen the price bottom yesterday at 14:10 ($14.06). I don't like Short sharks. They artificially distort the pricing mechanism. I would enjoy watching the price return to ~$18 in the next few weeks and watch them flail for the few remaining shares in the water.


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    • Andersongordon, your judgment is on target, so we share an opinion, the shorting seems overdone,
      but the price can stay distorted for a long time, and even go lower, and again I agree with the volume concept, any further selling would be on light volume, nvdq now off the low at 14.63 ask;

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