Shame that Roche is trashing Herceptin Subcu...One less possible revenue source
They went out of their way to really ditch that whole vein in the last cc. When a company has 6 or 8 items that are supposed to create future royalties and revenue streams and one of the biggies gets torpedoed, that ain't good!! (in case you can't tell by the share price!) Yes, they were giving out tons of free stock and then stock options...Freebies for everyone.
as we speak 3 companies making generic Herceptin thus l think Roche simply throwing them a curve...alternatively maybe Roche a little #$%$ re Ph deal with Halo and teaching Frost a lesson....Herceptin has major sales look at R numbers
Roche has said that generics won't be available until at least 2016. And the vengeful Roche theory is just ridiculous. Herceptin is a blockbuster, but not all of those sales will be up for grabs. A little under $6 billion total. Take out the U.S. - $2.8 billion. The vast majority of Herceptin patients are using it in the adjuvant setting for 1 year. The first 3 months it is used in conjunction with chemotherapy, so most will probably just take it as another infusion during this period - $2 billion. If you get 50% of the market (which will take some time) that gives you around $1 billion. If HALO's royalty is 5%, that is $50 million. If HALO's royalty is 3% (like, I believe, IMGN's royalty is) then you are at $30 million. Maybe $10-15 million the first year. TDM-1 will take a growing percentage of that over the next few years, until it completely replaces Herceptin. Subcu Herceptin feels like a Plan B, in case TDM-1 failed; a scenario that appears less and less likely. The same could be said about subcu MabThera and GA101. Anyone else have thoughts on sales projections?