... analysis you're getting on this site - along with a bunch of complaining lower-and-middle managers isn't giving you the true take on the company.
If you're sick - and around sick people long enough - you'll think is normal.
The reality is you always have the trough of company cancer - the complainers. They're not tough enough, smart enough or positive enough to give you the FUTURE of the company. They just puke about the past.
Get a clue. This stock is fine with room to go. JMHO.
First of all, someone said sales were great on a few other posts, they are ok, not great. Typical slow time of the year. Ashland Corporate knows very little about what it takes to run a plant and yes it's the plants that pay the corporate's salaries. The plants should be calling more shots, not vice versa! Hence the recent announcement about corporate layoffs. Why, because sales ain't that good.
From a Sarbaines Oxley standpoint the acountants delayed payment on several invoices this past quarter so the numbers looked better. Perfectly legal, but sooner or later this catches up to you, hence the corporate lay-offs.
There will be no buying of companies as Cappeline will head up the Drew water business once it gets divested in April. Cappeline can't be on the Ashland board(Working Exec) and the board of a new company, hence his retirement from Ashland. So Drew is next to go!
Now you have Valvoline, Chemicals and a whole lot of cash.
If you are sitting on a couple of billion cash, Ashland is.
You tend to become hunted by some of the big dogs. For example, DuPont was gonna acquire Ashland a few years back that fell through. Dow could be a player as well as a few others, maybe on the oil side. The chemicals business would offer a balanced portfolio for a independent oil company like Sunoco or Valero.
Another interesting point, SAP is being rolled out and they have about 200 hundred folks who might be looking for a job after that project is complete.
Bottom line, I don't think Ashland will be Ashland by the end of the year. Why, JOB ain't that smart as someone else is calling the shots here along the way, most likely whoever is going to buy ASH. Even if I'm wrong on this, JOB is doing something right and that is window-dressing this company for an immediate sale.
For what it is worth, I sold most of my ASH stock today at a little over $70 (but really it is like $80 a share since ASH just gave holders a payout of over $10 a share a month ago...so, today's $70 price is really like $80 a share.
I bought my ASH when it was about $25 a share and that wasn't that long ago....the recent run up seems very weird to me.
If ASH gets back down to around $50 a share, I will likely jump back in.
ONly My opinion.
While I appreciate you selling at 70 (I have some sell orders in at 72), there's nothing that would suggest this company will lose 30% of its market cap at this point, especially after reading the release on Friday. The reality is that OB is all about unlocking value at this point, regardless of what gets detached from the Ashland parent, which is exactly what he should do for the owners of Ashland Inc.
The earlier statement that 'sales ain't that good' (must have been a West Virginian with that fabulous grammatical approach) and thus layoffs are taking place is completely erroneous. OB isn't going to dump people based on seasonality or slower sales. The reality is that this 'blob' had accumulated so much G&A that he rightfully needs to lessen the support function as the company is 'right sized' or the value is unlocked and companies are detached.
Secondarily, he has some good things to sell and unlock: Valvoline being one of them. I'm proud of the brand we built there, but it needs a vertical parent. It can't buy open market base supplies and compete with the other players in the category - all part of a vertical supplying parent. So he has a great brand which no longer fits. He's going to polish companies like this and sell them to unlock the value which has been building for years. Merchant brands like Valvoline would be hugely beneficial to another company and are worth more to these companies than to Ashland.
Again, love where the stock price is and personally feel there's another $20 there in total. I'm going to sell off enroute to that supposition. JMHO.
Hope everybody had a great Christmas. Anybody know who won the Hartland Homeowners Association Christmas Light competition?