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Anika Therapeutics, Inc. (ANIK) Message Board

  • gp500e gp500e Sep 1, 1999 10:13 AM Flag

    A quick double AIMM

    Remember ANIKA, here is a chance to make a quick double AutoImmune Inc.

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    • I remember sometime in June last year reading in
      a press release about two other studies on the
      effectiveness of orthovisc (in Canada). If these studies have
      been completed (surely would have by now), then there
      is additional information out there. Just guessing,
      I would think the results of these studies would
      have lead towards a bias for the WOMAC pain scale
      becoming the primary end-point.

      TK.

    • Appreciate the input. In regards to your last
      statement, your right about the acceptance level of HA
      therapy. This is in part driven by the lack of really good
      clinical studies clearly delineating a high degree of
      efficacy...not just with a placebo control, but against other
      therapeutic regimes(NSAID's, COX-2's, Steroid Injections,
      Other HA products, etc.). I have talked with several
      orthopaedic surgeon friends who are just not seeing an
      acceptable degree of pain relief in a reasonable number of
      their patients to warrant further use, unless they are
      specifically asked by the patient. Some of this also has to do
      with adverse events related to the therapy, especially
      with Synvisc. Orthopaedist's were intorduced to the
      magnitude of this issue at their Academy meeting in
      February. Also, some admit that it was used as a rescue
      medication for late stage disease, when the product has been
      questioned on its effectiveness in these patients. Another
      plausible reason for the lack of notable growth and the
      drop in sales for Synvisc earlier this year was the
      introductions of COX-2's. ANIK could make tremendous strides in
      advancing the belief of using HA, IF their US clinicals
      shows a demonstrable increase in effectiveness
      contrasted with the other two products. Synvisc still is
      carrying that label from the Orthopaedic Device Panel
      reccomendations to the FDA back in November 1997 as being
      "marginally effective". By all accounts a first year market
      of $150 million is not bad, but proabably is
      underwhelming for analyst's who were expecting considerably
      higher performance comparable with a new Drug entry.
      It's unlikely that it will approach a drug's level of
      blockbuster performance in that respect. However, the key
      issue to remember, is that with some good clinical
      study support...conducted now, can set the stage for
      the "boomers" coming through the the critical time of
      use for this type of product and create that
      dynamically increasing market we all are waiting for.
      Convince the medical practioner and the patient on the
      validity of using this therapy and you will create the
      financial annunity for the doctor, the patient, amanged
      care, ANIK and its investors.(# of patients x Xyrs on
      HA=$$)

      Now if I can just get part of my purchase price back
      to where it
      was....*laughing

      Regards,
      Orthodm

    • I think ANIK was banking on ORTHOVISC approval
      when they announced the INCERT 1999 trials. With FDA
      rejection of ORTHOVISC, the resources of ANIK would be
      stretched too far if they conducted INCERT trials
      simultaneously with the second ORTHOVISC trials. I agree it
      would be difficult to find a desirable partner with
      deep pockets for INCERT when they could not get a
      harmless product like ORTHOVISC approved.

      ANIK's
      new management is more bottom line sensitive so I
      think financial issues weigh more heavily on the INCERT
      delay than technical or competitive issues. If
      ORTHOVISC had been approved last year I think we'd be
      seeing INCERT trials right now.

      Because ANIK must
      support itself from its own operations and cannot afford
      to burn cash, it looks doubtful we'll see any new
      developments until ORTHOVISC is selling in the US. (Unless one
      of the good doctors finds a new use for
      HA).

      I was surprised how much ORTHOVISC was being sold
      to Turkey. The revenue shortfall exceeds $500,000,
      or about 15% of expectations. ANIK did not say how
      much is due to Europe vs. Turkey.

      The stock
      prices of ANIK and BXM reflect a general perception that
      HA is not being accepted as quickly as many,
      including myself, expected.

    • I tried! re:6696. In addition, a market research
      firm called datamonitor claims ANIK has 10% share of
      the European market, with by far the majority of
      those sales generated by Turkey. Its unlikely that the
      product was marketed in other countries early enough to
      be captured in this data for first hald of
      99.

      Regards,
      Orthodm

    • the runup in prices a while back driven by some
      institutional buying based on optimism about europe and the
      progress on the trials ..the buying lead the 50 day moving
      average above the 200 day line which was a bullish
      signal...

      the stock gradually drifted lower as i predicted
      earlier based on the normal retracement of about 50%
      following a sharp runup in prices....

      the recent
      news about Turkey and the issue about the medicare
      reimbursements in europe caused the stock to drop back down to a
      66% retracement which the the normal upper bound for
      a normal retracement (range is usually
      33%-66%)..

      the problem with this latest drop is that it has
      taken the price below the 50 day moving average which
      is a bearish signal...what normally happens in this
      case is that we get a trading range between the 200
      day line and the 50 day line..so this puts a trading
      range of around 5 3/4 to about 7 1/4 a
      share....now...if the stock closes below 5 1/2 on any decent volume
      then this would be a very bearish signal from a
      technical point of view and we would then see a further
      drop to around 4 3/4...

      so what are the drivers
      for this over the medium term?..


      first the
      good news..the enrollment for the trials was completed
      about 2 months ahead of schedule and based on the
      easrlier results and the end points for the current trial
      we can expect that there won't be a repeat of last
      October's massacre..

      the bad news is that there is a
      real possibility that the insurance approvals in
      europe could take a while..this is not a slam dunk...in
      Canada they were never approved by the government
      agencies...in turkey orthovisc is approved as a drug and so it
      gets coverage...


      the other thing is that a
      japanese firm ..in association with Smith and Nephew...
      have filed an application for approval for an HA
      product that has been in use in Japan for many
      years..while it seems to be a first generation HA product..if
      the FDA approves it..there will another HA product on
      the US market before orthovisc sees the light of
      day..now..the question will be ..how strong is the zimmer
      machine and what will the impact be given that BXM seems
      to be having problems with its product...

      i
      don't have any answers to this..anything i say would be
      pure speculation...

      as the market digests this
      information we will get some clues watching the technical
      indicators as to the market
      sentiment...


      Cheers

      The Phantom

    • Vigates

      thank you for your kind
      sentiments...


      *laughing..i take it from your post that you have now conceded
      my age or was that an oversight on your
      part...*laughing heartily


      Cheers

      The Phantom

    • party at 5 9/16 moved 5 7/8, so things look good for the day.

      TK.

    • I'm suprised that none of us actually managed to
      put one-and-one together and come to a pre-emptive
      conclusion on the situation in Turkey. Being ANIK's most
      mature European market such a devastating Earthquake was
      bound to have dire effects.



      TK.

    • Thanks- glad to hear ANIK has not been halted for some reason.

    • Level II shows 2 bids at 5 3/4, one at 5 9/16 and sellers starting at 6.

      TK.

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