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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

  • jacksondunfrey jacksondunfrey Jul 12, 2010 4:27 PM Flag

    Reality CHECK

    The reality is that no one has a clue, not the analysts, no the retails investors, not even the institutional investors that are playing the market and this specific stock. the only thing we know is that this is one of the most interesting topics the FDA has come across and given the direction of our country's populations health the decision for the FDA isn't an easy one. They are faced with the troubles of balancing capitalism with positive solutions for our country and our people.

    Now when you get down to it, this company has a solution, and they have a product that meets the standards the FDA has requested. Its the best drug of the three, and they haven't done a deal yet bc they dont want to limit their potential upside until after their potential passage.

    This banter that goes on on these message boards is interesting but unproductive. You each just fuel each others fires with no real incremental information, and each post does not create an more or less certain of an outcome, its just all noise.

    so what i think everyone should do is sit quietly, think about their investment objectives, their goals, their priorities, think about the data that exists, think about how the sell side has the general intelligence of a common pig, think about how little the outcome has to do with any superstitions one might have.

    Here is the exercise that we all should think through.

    reality vs. possibility

    1. is it possible that Qnexa gets passed? YES, is it realistic that it happens given the safety concerns. YES.

    2. is it possible that VVUS will trade up to $20 based on the 4 year projected earnings at a 40% discount rate by the common pigs that put these reports together? YES, is it realistic that the stock will double based on news/earnings that have been recycled into the market and are widely known by everyone familiar with the stock? YES, so is the more realistic outcome that if they receive passage, that until takeover rumors start to trickle that we could see a pretty large sell of into the announcement, just like POZN? YES

    My prediction is that, the outcome that we expected will come, the stock will get a positive panel read. But that any bullish rush will be met by profit taking. the stock will settle for a few months and then we shall see one of two things happen. 1. take-over rumors will develop driving our imaginations wild and the stock up, or 2. the stock will stay settled until the real PDUFA Date in October.

    good luck.

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    • Reality check for you.....the advisory panel could also ask for more data!!! And also a longer term study. If you think about it this is the most likely scenario!!!

    • I disagree, I think the analysts and the company have a very good idea the drug will be approved since it has met EVERY published guideline the FDA has on what a company needs to show to get an obesity drug approved.

      VVUS has cleared every single one of those hurdles.

      Read the Needham and Wedbush reports again.

      • 1 Reply to ex_gs_guy
      • I checked in a bit ago to see what's going on here and have opined somewhat flipantly over the utter BS going around.

        The root of this post is exactly correct. No one knows, even VVUS, but we will soon have an idea. VVUS have done a good job, they have brought on talent to work this process since PIII results last fall, they have met their deadlines on Q, and now they wait just like we do weather short or long.

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