Arena's market cap of approximately 2billion while owning 36% of Lorcaserin implies a 5.5billion value for 100% of Lorcaserin. IMO this means the market has substantial doubts of Qnexa's approval and if approved there should be a huge rise in Vivus' stock price. Not too late to come on board.
95 to 99% approval for ARNA? You do know the lead heart doctor Kaul voted no along with most of the toxicologists. Yes, the vote was 18-4, but the no's were the key people. I see it's approved or CRL, no in-between. You can't be given a delay due to REMS since none were submitted. In the minds of the toxicologists, the rat problem was not solved. They don't believe this drug only touches a certain receptor and not the other. And the valve issue, there is no long term data on that.
As for price of the stock, I think most of this is day traders. Look at many biotechs...they run for no reason. Someone said they think $30 for both stocks. They probably don't even know how many shares ARNA has. Fully diluted, it's over double VVUS count, and ARNA only keeps 1/3 of the profit vs 100% for VVUS. Vivus has been working longer and closer with the FDA than any of the 3. I think Vivus is definitely approved, and ARNA could be too, but not a lock right now compared to some of the percentages thrown around. Qnexa seems to work better versus the 50% dropout rate for ARNA, but each side has their opinion on that.
I agree with you on the arena side, but I do not know if vvus will slip down to 19. I hope you're right and I will be watching. Some people are so attached to stocks and the company that they are invested in and they get upset when you say things like that. I am attached to money and not companies. I am up 800% on Arena and feel as though there is more to be made there right now.