I'm afraid despite the increase in scripts number month over month, 4th qtr sales number is not nearly close to support current valuation..
Don't let these tardbuckets fool you, script numbers are up b/c the company is giving away free drugs. This obviously will not translate well to the balance sheet, and once this becomes painfully obvious after earnings release the share price will drop like a stone. Of course these are just the rantings of one person...
It's possible that these nuggets of info aren't lost on the street analysts, so earnings expectations could be low already hence the horribly declining share price to date...if the dismal numbers are actually higher than the low expectations you could see a bump from these levels.
Bottom line, it's still risky to get in at these levels imo, so wait for earnings release before jumping in...whether the earnings causes a bump or spike, you'll have decreased your risk at least until the next quarter end when the game is played all over again...
My own plan is to look to buy in at either the $10 range or after earnings release.
Will_da_boy loses mean nothing right now. I would love it if VVUS announced a free 3 months supply of Qsymia for the next 500K patients who are prescribed Qsymia.
You know why? Because I know Qsymia works, I know it's the biggest advance in weight loss and long term health in decades and I want half million raving fans out there telling everyone how they lost 25 lbs on Qsymia and feel great ASAP. The rest will take care of itself.
Well said, willdaman. I guess I will hold back. One positive attribute about vvus is despite the anemic launch and pps dwindling down to 10, those savvy investors managed to gain 50% as pps once popped back to 15 early in the year. I will start trading this after earnings. Thanks!
Well luckyman let me educate on how the stock market works... pps of stocks move in anticipation of future earnings so if Qsymia scripts are doubling ever month it don't matter what 4th Q sales were :) The value of a quarterly reports is what it tells you about the potential FUTURE earnings. With the month over month growth curve VVUS is entering, quarterly reports don't have the same relevance as it does for companies that are growing at a measly 5, 10, 20% annual rate.
Point taken Tod, but had I followed you I would have been drowning in the same ocean as all VVUS fanatics with no shore in sight. Should I wait to jump in till after the next quarterly report? Even if FDA removes REMS in april full quarter of no restriction on sales will be released in NOV., so I guess i'll wait till second half of the year. Hopefully they'd raised cash before november sales figure and I will consider joining all of you in la la land.
look at it like this...ARNA hasn't sold a pill, and the pills they have don't work for 50-75% of users (drop outs a plenty). Market cap is higher than that of VVUS. You make smart choice, I've made mine
Sentiment: Strong Buy