VVUS should now be able to conclude a Stendra partnership agreement and announce its details before final EMA approval within the next couple of months. Any thoughts from VVUS longs?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Mooky, I was a long up until a few weeks ago, at which point I sold my shares for a 22% loss because I found a few short-term investment options that I could get into while VVUS was just sitting stagnant. I might get back in again soon depending on a few things.
My thoughts are that a stendra partnership will likely be announced just shortly after official approval of spedra in Europe. Whether this partner will be the same as that in North America is difficult to say. Vivus is looking much stronger now then they did back in October following Qsiva's rejection by the EMA. Qsymia is still their strongest candidate for blockbuster despite its slow sale ramp-up. However, the clock is really ticking for them to make some dramatic increases in sales since their patent expires in 2020 (6 years of sales isn't that much time considering this is the biggest of only two drugs in their pipeline).
While I would still love to see this company bought out, the prospects for that eventuality are so completely unclear that Vivus doesn't merit investment on that hypothesis alone. I also don't believe Vivus has, or will ever have, the marketing strength to make Qsymia a blockbuster. They need to either partner or sell to make get sales running because every one of their strategies is striking out. Not sure what's happening on the advertising front, but my understanding is they had to wait a year before any form of advertising would be permitted. Advertising of any kind would likely be a huge boost to sales, but what can level of advert. can Vivus afford!? Begs the question.
As I said, Vivus is looking stronger than they have in a long while, and with spedra approval and (if I understand correctly) permission to advertise in July, they'll be looking very attractive to any BP seeking to increase their profits in the coming years of patent expirations - which will be many. If Vivus can get the asking price they deserve I think it's their best move.
With all due respect Mooky, I am not convinced that the company will partner Stendra. Just about three months ago Vvus management said in essence the sell of the company wasn't a question of if but when and for how much and would likely occur before years end. Then in the last CC management hinted at some type of strategic deal occurring in the "April time frame". Sure a partnership could be announced, but it is equally or even more likely that with the only remaining addressable key issuses having just been favorably decided (the Rems amendment and EU Stendra approval) will result in the very near term (sometime in the next several weeks) sell of the company. I think it quite possible that the company is bought for 30-40 a share anytime starting Monday on through May. The only other major issue is the removal of advertising restrictions due to occur in July. With just two months to go, I don't see that as a concern of BP and therefore I still feel that a sale of the company is as or more probable that a partnership. We shall see, but regardless I think the share price of Vvus is destined to head strongly north before the start of the NFL season.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
pmt, thanks for your response. Up until the CHMP rejected Qsymias submission I did believe VVUS had a partner and a possible suitor. That event was a game changer in my opinion and that seems to be a major concern of FMC. I don't understand FMCs rush to change management unless they really believe they could get Qsymia Eu approval or they have an interested client who wants to purchase VVUS. Remember FMC only holds roughly 10% of VVUS and would need other major shareholders to vote with them to change the board of directors. Since a large portion of the institutional shares were purchased in the $20s I think a $50 to $60 buyout would be more acceptable to them. That is if the buyer felt they could eventually get EMA approval.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have to agree. First, Tam's optimism in yesterday's press release hints at that. Plus, the added pressure from FMC would seem to dictate that to come sooner rather than later. If a favorable partnership agreement results before the annual meeting, the probability of FMC's board candidates getting elected diminish. That would be a strong motivator for the current board and management, IMHO.