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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

  • shaggy_dawg shaggy_dawg Aug 6, 2013 6:22 PM Flag

    Vivus-- extended hours trading very quiet

    So far--Only two trades executed with above 5000 shares, both for $14.70ish. Small orders have been at lower prices, but not very many of those. Thus, nobody big seems to be dumping, just a few little guys.

    Cash & near-cash are decent, which allows for holding. The pattern for theo dumping tonight. bigger guys appears to be one of holding their shares until more data shows up??

    Listening to the call, & re-checking my model fitted to past scripts, my impression continues that offering discounts has not "made up" for the prior difficulty of doctors being restricted to mail order prescriptions for patients. Discontinuing that discount as more insurance companies shift Qsymia from Tier 3 to Tier 2, or even before then, would maybe make better use of cash

    Retail store prescriptions did not start until July 1. That much easier method of prescribing helps, but won't show up in official results until Q3 ends.

    Since july 1, third-party data sources that report weekly reults have detected the general direction upward (they under-estimate total magnitude of the offical numbers). There's been a trend of mail-order to decline in anticipation of the shift to retail.

    SUMMARY. There were 81,000 scripts in the quarter before july 1. Assuming 60 working days for doctors to prescribe, they've reached 1300-1400/day officially, up from the 1000/day average seen officially in March.
    JB, Shaggy's mom

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    • what a line of bull. reason no drop is there is no retail in this other than few die hard bag holders that will lose it all. if there was any retail this would have dropped at least a couple bucks. as long as institutions think they can muster this falling knife then a few hedgers can control this until there is nothing in the the bank. look for huge dilution in a few days. question is if they do dilute will have to give away millions of shares. not smart to hold this falling knife.

    • Shaggy, You are right. Extended hours trading is very quiet. Wait until tomorrow though. It won't be quiet then. There will be a lot of activity in the next few days as VVUS is heading south.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Everybody is sell, but no body is buying.

    • Could be, d_cerrato. Have seen big sell-offs in the past in the off hours, but you may be right, that institutionals don't trade that way.

      Another thought-- The FMC crowd has half the voteable shares, so are more than half of the institutional set. They may want to hold on to them for the annual meeting the 14th, or until the "new plan" is revealed, or until the new Big Pharma people on the board start showing what their connections are worth..

      CC. The findqsymia site that opened july 1 is getting 2000 hits per day. The script results of that won't show until Sept 30 numbers are out.
      Have an event to attend, so signing off.
      JB, Shaggy's mom

    • AH for VVUS has always been "quiet", having mainly institutional holders who usually will not trade AH.
      Wait until tomorrow, ..head fake in PM and then ..OUCH

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • If there are 25,000 doctors who prescribe Qsymia - type drugs a lot , and if daily prescription number is 1300 , then it is really a disaster, so far .Even though I am long , I have to admit this . By God , I hope , this changes. I have not listened the CC yet. I will do it later,but I am really scared to listen to.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

1.11-0.01(-0.89%)Oct 27 4:00 PMEDT