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Warren Resources, Inc. Message Board

  • hartthunter101 hartthunter101 Dec 17, 2010 6:57 PM Flag

    almost 22 months into this market rally

    I personally don't think the price action of Wres. has much to do with what it might being doing right or wrong or what it has going for it. When I posted on 12/14 about the daily ave in the markets going down each day-and since then we have had two higher than ave vol.on the dow with the dow falling.
    Perhaps it will show to just be end of the year profit or loss taking,
    but the big money managers know if these markets continue to retreat or stall like it has been, they know that rare is the stock that can fight the trend and preserving cash and profit taking should be the new rule.
    I don't want to sound like a downer here, nor a know it all, I just think the market conditions warrent some real caution and for me personally, because of what I think of market conditions, would not think of adding shares as they are going down. This is the only holding I didn't sell only because my ave per share price is around $2.67 for each .10 we go down I am loosing some real profit. I for one would rather buy on the way up and sell wwhile I still have a good profit.
    I am not sure what I should do now and I know there are many out there that are trying to get back what they have lost I have been there and thats not easy. I think if a person has the patients and the rescources to hold on that this stock has the potential to do great things.
    Didn't mean to be so long and hope I don't sound to mmuch like a downer--but if I do, it's not down on this stock but rather the market conditions we find ourselves in that I am down on.

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    • Nothing goes in a straight line but rather zig-zags up, down, or sideways. I've looked at the S&P over the past 10 years and noticed a selloff in January happens more times than not. January of this year was hell on me because I had just exited the bull run starting March 2008 and was "high" on the experience of a few doubles and triples in my portfolio. The correction in January befuddled me as the fundamentals of my investments had not changed but the market still drove them down as investors took advantage of profits they didn't have to pay taxes on for another year. I didn't fully understand the dynamic and made some bad trades trying to bottom-pick the market. Hello "January Effect". I'm still new at this with barely 2 years of actively managing my portfolio and trends are not 100%, but I'm mentally preparing for the expected January correction and will be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen. WRES has some solid support around my cost basis, so I have a little cushion to ride it out and a little money on the sidelines to take advantage of any buying opportunities.

    • More up to come in the markets if the economy begins to show a sign of recovery. Sideways trading for a few months if there are opposing opinions as to whether or not there is improvement or not. I have not seen news mentioning that the market is overvalued. I notice emerging markets besides China heating up like Japan and Brazil. My guess is a 10 to 15 percent rise in the major indexes before Summer 2011 and then maybe a flat market for the remainder of the calendar year while the macro catches its breath.

      • 1 Reply to palmoscopy
      • Holding WRES through the market's short-term sideways movement/consolidation for that long-term return continues to be the prevailing theme. The market lacks breadth as funds focus on their winners and the rest wallow around. In the short-term, I'm holding my positions and preparing for the January Effect as a lack of selling pressure at the end of this year leads me to believe a correction is due heading into 2011. I may trim my holdings or add as dictated by market behavior and timing (or lack of). My only major concern for 2011 is a possible crisis of state finance as federal stimulus expires at mid-year. I feel it will be a big deal and we'll be subjected to endless commentary of the double-dip recession from the news sources; however, I believe the Fed will handle the situation by printing and throwing money at the problem such as the banking crisis of 2008. Pattern recognition? The end result will devalue the dollar and promote inflation, which are a bonus to exports. The commodity trade should continue to be strong in 2011, so holding WRES still makes sense.

    • Both good posts. As Hart referenced, I am one of those in the red, but have the patience and resources to hold this stock until it gets back to black (and then ride it up)! Maybe I could have made more money by selling for a loss and picking a different pony, but I stuck with WRES and averaged down (many times). After 2 years of waiting, WRES is finally on the verge of kick-starting its drilling program (with a new rig), increasing production, and making some serious money. Plus, WRES is an on-shore driller with OXY as its next door neighbor. With oil looking to stay at $80 or higher into 2011, the timing could not be better for WRES. Nat gas is the icing on the cake and Niobrara is the lottery ticket. There is just too much good stuff going on here to sell now even if the broader markets are teetering.

    • I agree and it sounds like your market timing has been a little better than mine. I'm "all green" except for a new long-term position I just started. The market is contracting and I'd expect it to throw a fair share of monkey wrenches into the New Year. I could've sold higher but feel content to hold my positions with S&P above 1200 and with WRES in the $4's. I blame profit taking and sector rotation for the recent drop as MMs jettison laggards and focus on their winners. The pattern is fairly clear in the big tech names, financials, and coal. Too bad I don't control enough funds to spread it around. Anyway, a long-term view with WRES will numb the short-term sting.

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