Expectations: We are looking for an EPS loss of ($0.11) on revenue of $102.1mm. (Consensus is ($0.07) / $99.1mm). We note that Q1 revenue contains the benefit of about $20.8mm in retro-active fuel tax credits.
· Focus points:
o Clean Energy Fuels remains very much a story stock at this point, and we believe that the story will remain in‐tact following CLNE’s Q113 results, which should show progress in gasoline gallon equivalents delivered and sustained margin per gallon of $0.30 or better.
o Production of the Cummins Westport ISX12 G natural gas engine began on schedule in April.
o Westport (WPRT, NR) has expressed confidence in its sales pipeline of natural gas engines. In the last week in April, Owens Corning in Savanna, Georgia, deployed the new Cummins Westport ISX12 G natural gas engine on one of its South East routes. The trucks will fuel at CLNE’s South Carolina station.
o The US Energy Information Administration’s 2013 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts significant growth in heavy duty natural gas refueling, calling it the “fastest-growing fuel in the transportation sector,” with an average annual growth rate of 14.6% from 2011 to 2040. This represents upside to our forecasts at Dougherty & Co., which only go out to 2017.
· Stock behavior: More widespread adoption of natural gas engines is more of a 2H13 phenomenon, but the ball has started rolling. We believe that some of CLNE’s story remains misunderstood by the street, particularly CLNE’s access to debt capital, its NDAs on shipping routes, and the leverage in its business model. Some investors also remain concerned about dilution from a potential 2013 capital raise. While that remains a possibility, we believe that CLNE’s current options include adding debt and scaling back CapEx. Shares should respond positively to steady quarterly performance progress and/or a debt raise.
One of the key points is this: "some of CLNE’s story remains misunderstood by the street".
I believe that to be a fact. I spent some years in the trucking industry; even more years in marketing, and from what I read most analysts are wide of the mark, as are a great many posters around here.
On the other hand some posters are remarkably well informed and forward thinking, IMO.
The stock market is a tough place if you are impatient, or if you are a control freak. On the other hand it is a wonderful place if your idea of fun is making money and trying to help others do the same.
If CLNE's top line comes in at above 100 mil, that will be a success. Another important figure, though, will be the number of DGE and GGE sold. Q4/12 was 51.7. FY2012 was 194.9. CLNE must continue to increase those numbers. As the article said CLNE is only making about 30 cents/gallon from retail operations, although there is profit generated in other ways, too.