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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

  • sophist_man sophist_man Oct 25, 2007 11:04 PM Flag

    Tangible Book Value = NEGATIVE $18.30 / share

    There are only $291 million in tangible assets but $970 million in debt. If the business succeeds the shareholders own the profits, but if it fails the lenders take the loss on the net debt. It's a sweet deal for the shareholders but the lenders are sweating.

    What if a major shareholder takes the company private? If he does so personally rather than under a limited liability corporation then if the company fails he still owes all the debt personally. Nobody in their right mind would buy a company with a net value that's a $billion in the hole. Would he buy if someone loaned him the cash and he could have zero personal liability in case the business fails? Of course he would, but who would be dumb enough to lend under such terms? This is why nobody's going to take it prive. As long as they maintain the status quo they effectively have a call option on the future business. If it success the upside is unlimited, if it fails the downside is $5 a share.

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    • This company will not survive the recession.

    • crusade_to_liberate_iraqi_oil crusade_to_liberate_iraqi_oil Jan 9, 2008 10:25 PM Flag

      Never own a mass media stock during a recession. How's the interest coverage going to look six months from now?

    • ratio of 1.91 and a Quick ratio of 2.16 , so says Goldman Sachs , i believe them before i believe any body on this NEGATIVE 18.30 B S Messages... maybe i was too quick to judge Mr Smulyan.....

    • crusade_to_liberate_iraqi_oil crusade_to_liberate_iraqi_oil Jan 5, 2008 12:14 PM Flag

      Like I said, you have no idea how to read a balance sheet. The stock price may be down by 80% but the enterprise value is not. Anyone that buys the company gets the billion dollar debt. How much would you pay to buy out a company that has negative $18.30 per share tangible book value? If you think cash flow from operations is enough to cover debt service you would pay more than zero, but if not then you wouldn't take the company if they were giving it away for free. Zero appears to be where the share price is heading given that operating cash flow continues its steady decline.

      Why don't you understand that it's all about the debt?

    • I just broke my only new year's resolution..
      Don't catch a falling knife. Bought yesterday & today.
      Looks like I have no talent in calling a bottom. Maybe in a year I will get my money back?

    • You get your chance at him next Wednesday. I intend to be on the conference call and ask him what he's going to do to avoid a shareholder lawsuit.


    • Whoa - I didn't say that the market is wrong. Tell me this - is this company 80% worse than 18 months ago, when the CEO made an offer to take it private? I said that the market can be irrational longer than the individual investor can last. I tell you this - in 3 years, this will be at least a $10 stock. The assets could be sold for much more than they are listed at.

    • chimp_said_bring_em_on chimp_said_bring_em_on Dec 30, 2007 11:14 AM Flag

      Well, if you were smart you would have shorted several dollars higher and made some profits. Instead, you whine about how the market is irrational and prices are wrong. Did you ever consider that you might be wrong? NO! The entire market is wrong, and only you know the true value of the company.

    • You didn't get anything right. Emmis debt is 502 million. $179 million is deferred income taxes from losses. Their TANGIBLE VALUE is the value of the assets. In LA, they have two FM stations (last station sold in L.A. went for $250 million), plus 3 FMs in New York (value - $450 to $600 million). That covers the debt and the $152 million in market cap, plus you get Austin, St. Louis, Indy, two other markets, publications and three international radio networks FOR FREE. EMMS is worth $25 to $30 if sold off, which is why the shareholders want that to happen. Check your facts before telling others how to invest.

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