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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

  • peter_norths_proctologist peter_norths_proctologist Sep 19, 2013 5:24 PM Flag

    lackluster presentation today

    Not much to say. Not much guidance regarding NextRadio. He only mentioned Sprint in passing. In fact, the word "Sprint" doesn't even appear on the slides. He goes on to say that growth is slowing down, and that last quarter's performance of +6% growth won't be repeated, and that we can expect growth in the LOW single digits. I guess that's better than negative growth, but nothing to rejoice about. I thought NextRadio was going to ramp growth upwards, but I guess I was wrong. I recall the headline from their previous earnings press release: "EMMIS Reports Acclerating Revenue Growth". That word, "accelerating", was misleading. It portrays a company that is in the midst of revenue growth at a rate exceeding prior rates of growth. But today's webcast indicates the opposite. The growth rate is slowing down compared to last quarter.

    Also, I thought it was misleading that he mentioned today on the webcast, all the millions of people who have smartphones and how now they can listen to radio on their smartphones. But he didn't pare down that number to Sprint subscribers only; who would be the only users to have access to NextRadio. To put a number on this, Sprint has only 56 million customers. Whereas, Verizon and AT&T each have over 100 million customers. So NextRadio will only reach about 20% of the total cell phone market. It's still a decent chunk of the population, but not even close to full exposure. Not even close to half, or even one/third. This wasn't even mentioned in the slides. They made it appear like NextRadio will be available to smartphone users in general. Not so.

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    • He did lay out the case as to why their undervalued though. Seemed like most of the questions where digging into their finances which he handled well. I think it went about as expected other then not being able to keep up with last Q trends. So I guess we wait and see if anyone was paying attention and finds them undervalued.

      Holding Strong!

      • 1 Reply to hoosiertrader
      • peter_norths_proctologist peter_norths_proctologist Sep 19, 2013 6:11 PM Flag

        That's true, he made the case for being undervalued based on assets alone. There was a good slide that detailed the value of their FCC licesnses by state. It was very impressive.

        I thought maybe this could turn out to be a growth stock also, but I think now that's being too optimistic. It's unclear even if NextRadio will imrpove revenue overall. Advertisers may be too entrenched in the current newspaper/internet paradigm. We don't know yet. The assumption they seem to be making is that advertiers will just automatically begin to shift from newspaper to radio once they see the potenetial of NextRadio. But let's wait and see the evidence for that first.

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